Guesstimates on August 1, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: The S&P’s dropped all the way to 1442 earlier this morning in electronic trading, not too far from the 1435 target I cited yesterday for an important low. I think we shall see the low in early trading today, I don’t have a good sense of where it will occur. The subsequent rally should carry the S&Ps’ up 50 points.

QQQQ: Support is at 46.50. Next upside target is 53.00.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds have crept above 110 resistance but probably wont’ move above the 111-00 level before an extended drop to 103 begins. LT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.

September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and should soon begin a drop to 102 or so.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance at 137.80 is still stalling the market but any strength above that level will mean that the market will continue up to 140.00

Dollar-Yen: The 117.50 to 119.00 is strong support in the yen and I think a low will form there and be followed by a move to 130.

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: Crude oil has established itself above 76.90 resistance so the next upside target for September crude is the contract high at 80.30. I still think the next substantial move from here will be downward to the 66.00 level. XLE has reached 76 and OIH has reached 190 and both are headed lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.

GLD - August Gold: I will stick with my 695 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 650 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.

SLV - September Silver: Weakness below 1250 in the futures will convince me that an extended drop has started. Meantime I shall stick with my1370 upside target. SLV should bounce off of resistance near 133 and then drop below 120.

Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.