Spiders - September S&P Futures: After yesterday’s close the S&P’s moved back above 1470 resistance and stayed above there all night. I think this means that the market is now headed for the 1500-1510 zone (Spiders headed for 150-151). Once that zone is reached I think we shall see a move down into the 1400-25 range which will be followed by a big rally to new bull market highs.
QQQQ: The Q’s have been acting even stronger than the S&P and should hit 50 before a drop down to 47.50 develops. The bull market high so far is 50.66 and later this year the market should be trading well above that level.
TLT - September Bonds: The bonds still show no sign of weakness so I think this market will make it up to 113-00 before an extended drop starts. Meantime support beneath the market stands at 111-00. TLT has almost reached the 89.00 level and I think the next development will be a drop into the 80-81 range.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have reached 109-28 resistance but still show no sign of weakness. I think that the market has a good shot at reaching the 110-16 level before the extended drop I have been expecting begins.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market still stands at 136.60. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that..
Dollar-Yen: I no longer think the yen will drop below it 111.57 low. Resistance is at 117.20 and this next break should hold above the 112.00 level. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.
XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: The 66.00 level is the initial target for this downswing in crude but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 51.00 level looks like temporary support in USO.
GLD - December Gold: Resistance above the market is at 683. I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.
SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market is at 1245. Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV should drop below 90.
Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher will begin soon.
5 comments:
Carl,
This market has confounded everyone else so I am not surprised you need to keep changing your predictions also.
With as many changes that have occurred you have not changed your bullish stance. I agree with you that we will see a retest of the lows. What I do not understand is how you are so sure the lows will hold.
I remember the point and figure chart and I was suitably impressed. But turning points do occur from time to time. If we just relied on the point and figure chart uptrend we would eventually be wrong one day.
Based on everything that is going on do you have anything else?
I will tell you I am surprised at the number of insurance companies that are delaying or trying to stop payments they would have made a year ago. I suspect the insurance companies have greater losses than people realize and this problem is bigger than you and most people think. That kind of info does not get into technical analysis until it is to late btw.
None the less I like you blog and see merits in your analysis, but I also recognize that all forecasting has lots or errors.
Hi Carl,
would appreciate if you could post an updated version of the point and figure chart on S&P 500. I think we have a new buy signal at 1.480 after having made the required reversal down of at least 3 boxes.
Kind Regards Andreas
What makes you so sure we'll even test the bottom?
We have a decent chance of rocketing up from here...
Carl,
any update to the doom house chart in view of recent chart movement.
Carl
If the Fed raises interest rates would that mean it is giving up the fight against inflation? If so would that mean gold and other commodities might move higher than you think?
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