Spiders - September S&P Futures: The Fed cut the discount rate about 30 minutes ago and this sent the futures up about 25 points above yesterday’s close. The market has already put in its biggest rally since July 16 and this makes it likely that yesterday’s low will hold. In any case there is resistance above the market today at 1460. Support is at 1400. Divide these numbers by 10 to get the corresponding levels in the Spiders. I still think that new bull market highs will be seen later this year.
QQQQ: Resistance in the Q’s stands at 48.00. Support is at 45.00. Later this year the Q’s will go to new bull market highs.
TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 110-28 level is resistance and the next short term support is at 108-00. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have begun a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 136.00. Short term support stands near 133.00. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that..
Dollar-Yen: The yen should hold support near 111.50, rally to 113.50 or so and then drop a little lower to 110.50. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.
SLV - September Silver: Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900.
Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher will begin soon.
3 comments:
Saved by the bell, a good move by the FED, markets fueled by sub mortgage woes would most probably have collapsed even further as the JPY appreciates further.
well,well as it has been mentioned here many times .... a screaming buy LT. The mother of all short covering rallies is in the making.
New highs by the end of next month.
Given the relatively strong positive correlation between EUR/USD and the S&P 500 index, how do you reconcile the former dropping to 126 while the latter makes new bull market highs?
Thanks as usual for your insights!
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