Guesstimates on September 14, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - December S&P Futures: The S&P’s rallied above 1493 yesterday but could not move above their last top at 1513. This morning they are trading back below 1493. I really don’t know what to make of this, but the Q’s have suddenly started acting weaker than the S&P’s after a period of relative strength. This makes me even more cautious about following this short term up trend. The one thing I remain sure about is that new bull market highs will be seen before the end of the year, and that before new highs are seen we shall see at least one break of 70-80 points in the S&P’s and 7-8 points in the Spiders.

QQQQ: Any strength above 49.40 today will mean that the Q’s are on the way to new bull market highs above the last top at 50.66. Later this year the market should be trading well above that level.

TLT - December Bonds: The reaction in the bonds went further than I expected but as yet I see no evidence of a more extended downtrend. I still think the odds favor a bove to 114-24 before this extended downtrend begins. TLT has reached the 89.00 level and I think the next development will be a drop into the 80-81 range.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes should continue upward to 111-08. Support is at 109-24.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is headed for the 141.00 level.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: Crude now looks like it is headed for 81.00. The upside target for USO is 62. OIH will probably rally back to is high near 192 while ELE will make it up to 75.

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 730. I think gold will soon start a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.

SLV - December Silver: Silver looks like it is headed for the 1330 level. I think silver will soon start a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV below 90.

Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher is underway.