Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Guesstimates on February 19, 8:35 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis are still stuck in a 1340-1370 trading range but I think an upside breakout is imminent. I am going to be a buyer at 1356 using a 10 point stop. I still think that a move to 1430 is underway and that the January 22 low at 1256 will hold.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds are headed down to 112 or so. Today resistance is at 119-12. I think TLT will drop to 88.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes are still holding support but a break below 115-20 will mean that a drop to 112 is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: The market has broken out of its 3 week trading range to the upside and is headed for the 110 level. I now think it has established an important low and is headed much higher.

XLE - OIH - USO – March Crude: The market has rallied to a shade above 95.00 resistance. A close above 96.50 will mean that the market is headed for 101 but lacking that close I shall stick with my view that a move below the 85 level will be the next development. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60 over the coming months.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 885 level in the April contract. Any weakness below 880 will mean that a drop to at least 750 has begun.

SLV - March Silver: I am raising my silver target to 1900-2000 to keep it in line with the gold target of 1000. Support still stands at 1500.

Google: Google has moved decisively above 525 and is in the early stages of a move which will carry it to 750 and higher.

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