Friday, February 08, 2008

Guesstimates on September 8, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis are trading between 1350 and 1312. If they should hold 1325 today and then show strength above 1350 I shall abandon my view that the market is headed down to 1300 or a bit lower. Until and unless such strength materializes I still think we shall see a print near 1290 before a rally to 1400 and above begins. In any case I think the January 22 low is going to hold and that in three or four months the average will be above the 1600 level.

QQQ: I think the Q’s are headed for 42.50 and then should rally to 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds broke support at 118-00 and this means the market is headed down to 112 or so. Today resistance is at 118-12. I think TLT will drop to 88.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes are still holding support but I think they are about to follow the bonds downward. A break below 115-20 will mean that a drop to 112 is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is establishing an important low but another drop down into the 104-105 zone is likely before a sustained rally can begin.

XLE - OIH - USO – March Crude: It looks like March crude will soon drop below the 85.00 level and then the next support level is the short term target at 75.00. Resistance still stands at 95.00 but I no longer think it will be reached anytime soon. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60 over the coming months.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 885 level in the April contract. Any weakness below 880 will mean that a drop to at least 750 has begun.

SLV - March Silver: I am raising my silver target to 1900-2000 to keep it in line with the gold target of 1000. Support still stands at 1500.

Google: Google is headed down to 450. Resistance above the market is at 515.

4 comments:

BH_Trade said...

You haven't posted a trade recommendation in weeks. Have you abandoned the public posting of trades? Just curious.

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl:

You posts on the three peaks and domed house called for a top in the DOW for Nov ... seems you were right ... but you kept revising it and moving the date forward.
Could you pls provide an update as to what Lindsay's method calls for at this time?
Also, P&F chart show a target of 9400 for the DOW ... any thoughts/comments?

Great blog ... keep up the good work!

Anonymous said...

Today is February 8th, not September 8th (unless you found a way to give us a glimpse into the future). :)

Anonymous said...

HEY CARL
JUST A BIT OF MUMOR FOR YOU
3 to 4 months from sept 8th 2008 is dec 2008 jan 2009 .
if you note the top of the page it says guesstimates for sept 8 2008
ill stick to m stance that we are bottoming that this is not 1998 and there is no way the spx will make new highs in 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 months . march is a low as is early april . so unless you expect a historical 300 point rise in the month of april it is impossible to expect new highs over the next few months . just my thoughts based on cycles .