Monday, February 25, 2008

Guesstimates on February 25, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The market is still stuck in the 1330-1370 trading range. I expect an upside breakout from this range which will carry the e-minis up into the 1430-50 range fairly quickly. If the market can hold the 1350 level today I think this upside breakout will occur in the next day or two. In any case I think that the January 22 low at 1256 will hold and that a rally to the 1430 level will be the next significant development.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds are headed down to 112 or so. Resistance stands at 118-04. I think TLT will drop to 88.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes are still holding support but a break below 115-20 will mean that a drop to 112 is underway. Resistance is at 116-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed for the 110 level. Support is at 106.50. I think the yen has established an important low and is headed much higher.

XLE - OIH - USO – April Crude: The market is hovering below resistance at 101. I think this is only a temporary move to new highs and that crude oil will soon head back down to below 85.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 900 level in the April contract.

SLV - March Silver: I am raising my silver target to 1900-2000 to keep it in line with the gold target of 1000. Support now is at 1610.

Google: Google has dropped near support at 500 and I think the next big move will be upward to 750 and higher.

3 comments:

Will Rahal said...

Carl,
I thought you'f find the relationship of PPI/CPI with respect to P/E interesting.

In the past, a typical 2/3 contraction in P/E has taken place when Commodities were soaring.

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

We closed above 1334.00 on Friday; therefore I’m still holding my long position from 1315.50.

Today, I will have a second buy signal if we trade at 1368.30 in the large SP March contract. To take advantage of this, I have a buy stop today at 1368.30. I will add to my long position on that buy stop and will remain long this second position into the close if we close above 1368.30 today.

PM

BeautifulWorld.me said...

Hi Carl,

Will see how markets will react to PPI data tomorrow.

Good luck