Thursday, February 28, 2008

Guesstimates on February 28, 8:40 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis again have support in the 1360-65 range today. I think the market is about to move into the 1430-50 range. In any case I think that the January 22 low at 1256 will hold.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds are headed down to 112 or so. Resistance stands at 118-04. I think TLT will drop to 88.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes are still holding support but a break below 115-20 will mean that a drop to 112 is underway. Resistance is at 116-28.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has reached the 151.00 target. I think there will be a big break from this level and if I am right we soon should see prints below 149.00. If this doesn’t happen in the next couple of days then I will shift gears and start looking for a rally to 156.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has broken support at 106.50 so I think it will drop to 104.50 before beginning a sustained rally.

XLE - OIH - USO – April Crude: The market is hovering below resistance at 101. I think this is only a temporary move to new highs and that crude oil will soon head back down to below 85. If I am wrong the I will start looking for a move to 106.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 910 level in the April contract.

SLV - March Silver: Silver has entered the 1900-2000 resistance range. I think that the market won’t move much above 2000 before it has a big break.

Google: I think the drop from the 747 high is nearly over. There is very strong support in the 400-440 range and my guess is that Google will make an important low in that range and then begin a sustained up move. Meantime resistance is at 490.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

you think too much there is no sign yet wait for a breakout

Anonymous said...

hi carl
just thought id mention a few things fibonacci wise . thursday
was 8 calendar days before march 6th , the mkt was down . this is a good sign that march 6th will be a low feb 22 was 13 calendar days before march 6th it was a low .
so were now seeing high to low counts showing up . the trading days stuff is also showing up
and im now working on the 60 minute fibonacii convergences
which point to march 5th to the 10th . trading days is march 4th to 11 th . calander days march 6th
if these all happen to line up into a bottoming formation
then you will be finally vinticated in calling the bottom
time still tracing out a beatiful form .
joe