Friday, February 29, 2008

Guesstimates on February 29, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I now believe this reaction will halt around 1345. From there the e-minis should resume their move into the 1430-50 range. In any case I think that the January 22 low at 1256 will hold.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.50.

TLT - June Bonds: Switching to the June contract which is trading a point below March. The market has rallied more than I expected but as long as June can hold 118-04 resistance I think that the next move will take it below 115. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: Switching to the June contract which is trading 1-12 below March. Resistance is at 116-28 and I think that a drop below114 lies ahead.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has reached the 151.00 target. I think there will be a big break from this level and if I am right we soon should see prints below 149.00. If this doesn’t happen in the next couple of days then I will shift gears and start looking for a rally to 156.

Dollar-Yen: I think this break below 105.00 will find support in the 104.00-104.50 range and that a sustained rally is about to start.

XLE - OIH - USO – April Crude: The market closed well above resistance yesterday so I think it is now headed for 105-106.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are headed for 1000. Support is at the 910 level in the April contract.

SLV - May Silver: Switching to the May contract which is trading about 10 cents over March. Silver has entered the 1900-2000 resistance range. I think that the market won’t move much above 2000 before it has a big break.

Google: I think the drop from the 747 high is nearly over. There is very strong support at 420 and my guess is that Google will make an important low near there and then begin a sustained up move. Meantime resistance is at 490.

Thursday, February 28, 2008

Guesstimates on February 28, 8:40 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis again have support in the 1360-65 range today. I think the market is about to move into the 1430-50 range. In any case I think that the January 22 low at 1256 will hold.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds are headed down to 112 or so. Resistance stands at 118-04. I think TLT will drop to 88.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes are still holding support but a break below 115-20 will mean that a drop to 112 is underway. Resistance is at 116-28.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has reached the 151.00 target. I think there will be a big break from this level and if I am right we soon should see prints below 149.00. If this doesn’t happen in the next couple of days then I will shift gears and start looking for a rally to 156.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has broken support at 106.50 so I think it will drop to 104.50 before beginning a sustained rally.

XLE - OIH - USO – April Crude: The market is hovering below resistance at 101. I think this is only a temporary move to new highs and that crude oil will soon head back down to below 85. If I am wrong the I will start looking for a move to 106.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 910 level in the April contract.

SLV - March Silver: Silver has entered the 1900-2000 resistance range. I think that the market won’t move much above 2000 before it has a big break.

Google: I think the drop from the 747 high is nearly over. There is very strong support in the 400-440 range and my guess is that Google will make an important low in that range and then begin a sustained up move. Meantime resistance is at 490.

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Guesstimates on February 27, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis have support in the 1360-65 range today. I think the market is about to move into the 1430-50 range. In any case I think that the January 22 low at 1256 will hold.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds are headed down to 112 or so. Resistance stands at 118-04. I think TLT will drop to 88.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes are still holding support but a break below 115-20 will mean that a drop to 112 is underway. Resistance is at 116-28.

Euro-US Dollar: The market nearly reached the 151.00 target this morning. The trend is still up but I think the euro will have a tough time getting much above the 151 level without first breaking at least 500 pips.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has dropped to support at 106.50. I think the market will hold its low at 105 and rally to 110 and higher..

XLE - OIH - USO – April Crude: The market is hovering below resistance at 101. I think this is only a temporary move to new highs and that crude oil will soon head back down to below 85.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 910 level in the April contract.

SLV - March Silver: Silver has entered the 1900-2000 resistance range. I think that the market won’t move much above 2000 before it has a big break.

Google: I think the drop from the 747 high is nearly over. There is very strong support in the 400-440 range and my guess is that Google will make an important low in that range and then begin a sustained up move. Meantime resistance is at 490.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Guesstimates on February 26, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis closed above the high of the recent 1330-1370 trading range yesterday and so far this morning the market is trading about unchanged. I think a breakout move is underway and as long as the market holds 1360 today I think it will be trading above the 1400 level in a few days and be on its way to 1430-50. In any case I think that the January 22 low at 1256 will hold.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds are headed down to 112 or so. Resistance stands at 118-04. I think TLT will drop to 88.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes are still holding support but a break below 115-20 will mean that a drop to 112 is underway. Resistance is at 116-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed for the 110 level. Support is at 106.50. I think the yen has established an important low and is headed much higher.

XLE - OIH - USO – April Crude: The market is hovering below resistance at 101. I think this is only a temporary move to new highs and that crude oil will soon head back down to below 85.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 910 level in the April contract.

SLV - March Silver: I am raising my silver target to 1900-2000 to keep it in line with the gold target of 1000. Support now is at 1610.

Google: Google broke below 500 support yesterday even as the averages rallied. This combination makes a drop to 460 the next likely development.

Monday, February 25, 2008

Guesstimates on February 25, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The market is still stuck in the 1330-1370 trading range. I expect an upside breakout from this range which will carry the e-minis up into the 1430-50 range fairly quickly. If the market can hold the 1350 level today I think this upside breakout will occur in the next day or two. In any case I think that the January 22 low at 1256 will hold and that a rally to the 1430 level will be the next significant development.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds are headed down to 112 or so. Resistance stands at 118-04. I think TLT will drop to 88.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes are still holding support but a break below 115-20 will mean that a drop to 112 is underway. Resistance is at 116-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed for the 110 level. Support is at 106.50. I think the yen has established an important low and is headed much higher.

XLE - OIH - USO – April Crude: The market is hovering below resistance at 101. I think this is only a temporary move to new highs and that crude oil will soon head back down to below 85.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 900 level in the April contract.

SLV - March Silver: I am raising my silver target to 1900-2000 to keep it in line with the gold target of 1000. Support now is at 1610.

Google: Google has dropped near support at 500 and I think the next big move will be upward to 750 and higher.

Friday, February 22, 2008

Guesstimates on February 22, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The market is still stuck in the 1340-1370 trading range. I expect an upside breakout from this range which will carry the e-minis up into the 1430-50 range fairly quickly. In any case I think that the January 22 low at 1256 will hold and that a rally to the 1430 level will be the next significant development.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds are headed down to 112 or so. Resistance now stands at 118-04. I think TLT will drop to 88.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes are still holding support but a break below 115-20 will mean that a drop to 112 is underway. Resistance is at 116-28.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed for the 110 level. Support is at 106.50. I think the yen has established an important low and is headed much higher.

XLE - OIH - USO – April Crude: The market is hovering below resistance at 101. I think this is only a temporary move to new highs and that crude oil will soon head back down to below 85.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 900 level in the April contract.

SLV - March Silver: I am raising my silver target to 1900-2000 to keep it in line with the gold target of 1000. Support now is at 1610.

Google: Google has dropped near support at 500 and I think the next big move will be upward to 750 and higher.

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Guesstimates on February 21, 9:40 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The market is still stuck in the 1340-1370 trading range. I expect an upside breakout from this range which will carry the e-minis up into the 1430-50 range fairly quickly. In any case I think that the January 22 low at 1256 will hold and that a rally to the 1430 level will be the next significant development.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds are headed down to 112 or so. Today resistance is at 119-12. I think TLT will drop to 88.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes are still holding support but a break below 115-20 will mean that a drop to 112 is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: The market has broken out of its 3 week trading range to the upside and is headed for the 110 level. I now think it has established an important low and is headed much higher.

XLE - OIH - USO – April Crude: The market is close to resistance at 101. I think this is only a temporary move to new highs and that crude oil will soon head back down to below 85.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 885 level in the April contract. Any weakness below 880 will mean that a drop to at least 750 has begun.

SLV - March Silver: I am raising my silver target to 1900-2000 to keep it in line with the gold target of 1000. Support still stands at 1500.

Google: Google has dropped near support at 500 and I think the next big move will be upward to 750 and higher.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Guesstimates on February 20, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I thought the e-minis were about to breakout yesterday above the high of this 1340-1370 trading range but instead the market dropped back toward the low of the range and I was stopped out at 1346. At this juncture sustained weakness below the 1335 level would indicate that the market is headed down to 1290. In any case I think that the January 22 low at 1256 will hold and that a rally to the 1430 level will be the next significant development.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds are headed down to 112 or so. Today resistance is at 119-12. I think TLT will drop to 88.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes are still holding support but a break below 115-20 will mean that a drop to 112 is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: The market has broken out of its 3 week trading range to the upside and is headed for the 110 level. I now think it has established an important low and is headed much higher.

XLE - OIH - USO – April Crude: The market is headed for 101 or so. It has been trading in the 85-100 range for more than three months and I think the big move out of this range will be to the downside.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 885 level in the April contract. Any weakness below 880 will mean that a drop to at least 750 has begun.

SLV - March Silver: I am raising my silver target to 1900-2000 to keep it in line with the gold target of 1000. Support still stands at 1500.

Google: Google has dropped near support at 500 and I think the next big move will be upward to 750 and higher.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

E-mini Afternoon Update

I am going to stick with my 1346 stop until 4:00 pm New York time today. If the market is trading below 1355 at 4:00 pm then I will sell my position figuring that a move back to the low of the trading range at 1337 is underway.

E-mini Update

As I said in this morning's guesstimate I had limit buy orders at 1356.00 which was touched by the market but not broken. I didn't get filled so I put in a market order and bot 1357's and am still going to use a 1346 stop.

Guesstimates on February 19, 8:35 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis are still stuck in a 1340-1370 trading range but I think an upside breakout is imminent. I am going to be a buyer at 1356 using a 10 point stop. I still think that a move to 1430 is underway and that the January 22 low at 1256 will hold.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds are headed down to 112 or so. Today resistance is at 119-12. I think TLT will drop to 88.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes are still holding support but a break below 115-20 will mean that a drop to 112 is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: The market has broken out of its 3 week trading range to the upside and is headed for the 110 level. I now think it has established an important low and is headed much higher.

XLE - OIH - USO – March Crude: The market has rallied to a shade above 95.00 resistance. A close above 96.50 will mean that the market is headed for 101 but lacking that close I shall stick with my view that a move below the 85 level will be the next development. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60 over the coming months.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 885 level in the April contract. Any weakness below 880 will mean that a drop to at least 750 has begun.

SLV - March Silver: I am raising my silver target to 1900-2000 to keep it in line with the gold target of 1000. Support still stands at 1500.

Google: Google has moved decisively above 525 and is in the early stages of a move which will carry it to 750 and higher.

Friday, February 15, 2008

Guesstimates on February 15, 8:35 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis have dropped back to 1337, just a shade below their last low at 1339.75. I don’t have orders in yet but I do expect to be a buyer in the 1330-35 range today. I shall let you know when I take action. I still think that a move to 1430 is underway and that the January 22 low at 1256 will hold.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds are headed down to 112 or so. Today resistance is at 119-12. I think TLT will drop to 88.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes are still holding support but a break below 115-20 will mean that a drop to 112 is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: The market has broken out of its 3 week trading range to the upside and is headed for the 110 level. I now think it has established an important low and is headed much higher.

XLE - OIH - USO – March Crude: The market has rallied to a shade above 95.00 resistance. A close above 96.50 will mean that the market is headed for 101 but lacking that close I shall stick with my view that a move below the 85 level will be the next development. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60 over the coming months.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 885 level in the April contract. Any weakness below 880 will mean that a drop to at least 750 has begun.

SLV - March Silver: I am raising my silver target to 1900-2000 to keep it in line with the gold target of 1000. Support still stands at 1500.

Google: Google has moved decisively above 525 and is in the early stages of a move which will carry it to 750 and higher.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Guesstimates on February 14, 8:45 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis are climbing out of their 1340-63 trading range and the next upside target is 1390. Support has come up to 1350. A move to 1430 is underway. The January 22 low is going to hold and that in three or four months the average will be above the 1600 level.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds are headed down to 112 or so. Today resistance is at 119-12. I think TLT will drop to 88.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes are still holding support but a break below 115-20 will mean that a drop to 112 is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: The market has broken out of its 3 week trading range to the upside and is headed for the 110 level. I now think it has established an important low and is headed much higher.

XLE - OIH - USO – March Crude: The market has rallied close to 95.00 resistance but I think it will soon turn and drop below 85.00. The next support level is 75.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60 over the coming months.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 885 level in the April contract. Any weakness below 880 will mean that a drop to at least 750 has begun.

SLV - March Silver: I am raising my silver target to 1900-2000 to keep it in line with the gold target of 1000. Support still stands at 1500.

Google: Google has moved decisively above 525 and is in the early stages of a move which will carry it to 750 and higher.

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Guesstimates on February 13, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I got stopped out of my position late yesterday at 1343. The fact that the market dropped almost 10 points below the breakout level at 1348.50 means that it has established a new trading range of 1340-63 and I think that it will visit the low end of this range again before attempting to move higher. In any case a move to 1430 is underway. The January 22 low is going to hold and that in three or four months the average will be above the 1600 level.

QQQ: It’s starting to look like the Q’s are putting in a higher low. Strength above 44.50 would confirm this and mean that a move up to 47.50 is underway.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds are headed down to 112 or so. Today resistance is at 119-12. I think TLT will drop to 88.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes are still holding support but a break below 115-20 will mean that a drop to 112 is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is establishing an important low but another drop down into the 104-105 zone is likely before a sustained rally can begin.

XLE - OIH - USO – March Crude: The market has rallied close to 95.00 resistance but I think it will soon turn and drop below 85.00. The next support level is 75.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60 over the coming months.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 885 level in the April contract. Any weakness below 880 will mean that a drop to at least 750 has begun.

SLV - March Silver: I am raising my silver target to 1900-2000 to keep it in line with the gold target of 1000. Support still stands at 1500.

Google: Google took a peek above 525 yesterday but couldn’t hold its gains. Any strength above 525 will mean that Google is has begun another bull market advance. I still think that GOOG will traded above the 750 level during the next few months.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Raising the Stop

This morning's trade is off to a good start. It looks like the market is breaking out above the 1350 top of the recent trading range. So I am raising the stop to 1343 GTC.

Nattering Nabob of Negativism



Here are the last three covers of Business Week magazine. In my forty years of dealing with markets I don't think I have ever seen any national publication, even a "trade" publication like BW, publish bearish cover stories three weeks running. Business Week editors must be pretty confident of their assessment of the economy's and the market's prospects.

This is one bet I am happy to copper. My best guess is that all the markets have well discounted the foreseeable consequences of the current "credit crunch". If I am right we shall see all the major averages at new bull market highs in a few months time.

E-mini Update

I just bot the March e-mini at 1346 and am using a 1333 stop.

Guesstimates on February 12, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I think the e-minis have started a move to1430 or so and there is a good chance that today will be a breakout day. I shall try to get long on a reaction that carries back near yesterday’s close at 1338 and will tell you when I put the order in. If I am reading the situation correctly yesterday’s close should be support today. In any case I think the January 22 low is going to hold and that in three or four months the average will be above the 1600 level.

QQQ: It’s starting to look like the Q’s are putting in a higher low. Strength above 44.50 would confirm this and mean that a move up to 47.50 is underway.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds are headed down to 112 or so. Today resistance is at 119-12. I think TLT will drop to 88.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes are still holding support but a break below 115-20 will mean that a drop to 112 is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is establishing an important low but another drop down into the 104-105 zone is likely before a sustained rally can begin.

XLE - OIH - USO – March Crude: It looks like March crude will soon drop below the 85.00 level and then the next support level is the short term target at 75.00. The market rallied close to 95.00 resistance yesterday but I think it will soon turn and drop below 85.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60 over the coming months.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 885 level in the April contract. Any weakness below 880 will mean that a drop to at least 750 has begun.

SLV - March Silver: I am raising my silver target to 1900-2000 to keep it in line with the gold target of 1000. Support still stands at 1500.

Google: Any strength above 525 will mean that Google is has begun another bull market advance. I still think that GOOG will traded above the 750 level during the next few months.

Monday, February 11, 2008

Guesstimates on February 11, 8:40 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: It is beginning to look like the e-minis are going to hold last weeks low at 1312 and begin the second leg upward which should carry the market to 1430 or so. Strength above the 1350 level would confirm this suspicion. In any case I think the January 22 low is going to hold and that in three or four months the average will be above the 1600 level.

QQQ: It’s starting to look like the Q’s are putting in a higher low. Strength above 44.50 would confirm this and mean that a move up to 47.50 is underway.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds are headed down to 112 or so. Today resistance is at 119-12. I think TLT will drop to 88.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes are still holding support but a break below 115-20 will mean that a drop to 112 is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is establishing an important low but another drop down into the 104-105 zone is likely before a sustained rally can begin.

XLE - OIH - USO – March Crude: It looks like March crude will soon drop below the 85.00 level and then the next support level is the short term target at 75.00. Resistance still stands at 95.00 but I no longer think it will be reached anytime soon. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60 over the coming months.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 885 level in the April contract. Any weakness below 880 will mean that a drop to at least 750 has begun.

SLV - March Silver: I am raising my silver target to 1900-2000 to keep it in line with the gold target of 1000. Support still stands at 1500.

Google: Any strength above 525 will mean that Google is has begun another bull market advance. I still think that GOOG will traded above the 750 level during the next few months.

Friday, February 08, 2008

Guesstimates on September 8, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis are trading between 1350 and 1312. If they should hold 1325 today and then show strength above 1350 I shall abandon my view that the market is headed down to 1300 or a bit lower. Until and unless such strength materializes I still think we shall see a print near 1290 before a rally to 1400 and above begins. In any case I think the January 22 low is going to hold and that in three or four months the average will be above the 1600 level.

QQQ: I think the Q’s are headed for 42.50 and then should rally to 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: The bonds broke support at 118-00 and this means the market is headed down to 112 or so. Today resistance is at 118-12. I think TLT will drop to 88.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes are still holding support but I think they are about to follow the bonds downward. A break below 115-20 will mean that a drop to 112 is underway.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is establishing an important low but another drop down into the 104-105 zone is likely before a sustained rally can begin.

XLE - OIH - USO – March Crude: It looks like March crude will soon drop below the 85.00 level and then the next support level is the short term target at 75.00. Resistance still stands at 95.00 but I no longer think it will be reached anytime soon. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60 over the coming months.

GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 885 level in the April contract. Any weakness below 880 will mean that a drop to at least 750 has begun.

SLV - March Silver: I am raising my silver target to 1900-2000 to keep it in line with the gold target of 1000. Support still stands at 1500.

Google: Google is headed down to 450. Resistance above the market is at 515.

Thursday, February 07, 2008

Meltdown!



Here is the latest cover of Business Week. The editors' view of the prospects for the housing market is pretty clearly expressed in this cover. My own view is that the stock market has pretty much discounted all that is known about the current state of the housing market and its implications for credit availability and bank profits. So I think we are pretty close to the low in housing and bank stocks and that both sectors will be trading substantially higher 12 months from now.

The chart of Home Depot is particularly striking. HD established it low early in January, before the averages made their lows, and since then has rallied a greater percentage than anytime in the past year. I think this is the first harbinger of springtime in housing stocks. Note too the chart of KBE, the bank index spiders. Here too we have seen a very substantial rally with plenty of room for a successful test of the January low. I think that KBE will make it up to 50 before another significant drop can materialize.

Fortune Piles On

Here is an image of the latest cover of Fortune Magazine. In previous posts which you can find here and here I have noted the avalanche of cover stories and long "between the covers" stories which are serving to reflect and to amplify the current extreme bearish sentiment. I think this market is headed for a very big rally which will carry the averages above their October 2007 highs over the next few months.

Guesstimates on February 7, 8:25 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: Resistance today in the e-minis stands at 1340. The market will probably bounce from last week’s low at 1310.25 back up to resistance, but I think that we shall see a dip to 1290 or so before the second leg of the rally from the January 22 low of 1255.75 starts. In any case I think the January 22 low is going to hold and that in three or four months the average will be above the 1600 level.

QQQ: I think the Q’s are headed for 42.50 and then should rally to 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: Support is at 118-00 but weakness below there will mean that the market has started and extended drop. Meantime I think the bonds still have a shot at the 2003 top of 123-03. TLT has nearly reached its 98.50 target.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes should encounter strong resistance at 120. Weakness below 115-08 will mean that the trend has turned downward.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is establishing an important low but another drop down into the 104-105 zone is likely before a sustained rally can begin.

XLE - OIH - USO – March Crude: It looks like March crude will soon drop below the 85.00 level and then the next support level is the short term target at 75.00. Resistance still stands at 95.00 but I no longer think it will be reached anytime soon. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60 over the coming months.

GLD - April Gold: Switching to the April contract. I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 885 level in the April contract. Any weakness below 880 will mean that a drop to at least 750 has begun.

SLV - March Silver: I am raising my silver target to 1900-2000 to keep it in line with the gold target of 1000. Support still stands at 1500.

Google: Google is headed down to 450. Resistance above the market is at 515.

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Guesstimates on February 6, 11:30 am ET

NOTE: Computer problems delayed this post!

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis trades below 1365 support all day yesterday and this means that the market is headed down to 1300 or so. Meantime the 1365 level becomes resistance. In any case I think the January 22 low is going to hold and that in three or four months the average will be above the 1600 level.

QQQ: I think the Q’s are headed for 42.50 and then should rally to 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: Support is at 118-00 but weakness below there will mean that the market has started and extended drop. Meantime I think the bonds still have a shot at the 2003 top of 123-03. TLT has nearly reached its 98.50 target.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes should encounter strong resistance at 120. Weakness below 115-08 will mean that the trend has turned downward.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is establishing an important low but another drop down into the 104-105 zone is likely before a sustained rally can begin.

XLE - OIH - USO – March Crude: Resistance stands at 95.00. I think that crude is headed for 75.00 and eventually much lower than that. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - April Gold: Switching to the April contract. I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 885 level in the April contract.

SLV - March Silver: I am raising my silver target to 1900-2000 to keep it in line with the gold target of 1000. Support still stands at 1500.

Google: Google is headed down to 450. Resistance above the market is at 515.

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Guesstimates on February 5, 8:40 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: Support today is at 1365. Weakness below there will mean that the market is headed down to 1300 or so in a test of the 1256 low of January 22. If 1365 holds the next step up should carry the e-minis into the 1420-30 zone. In any case I think the January 22 low is going to hold and that in three or four months the average will be above the 1600 level.

QQQ: I think the Q’s are headed for 47.50. Support is at 44.30.

TLT - March Bonds: Support is at 118-00 but weakness below there will mean that the market has started and extended drop. Meantime I think the bonds still have a shot at the 2003 top of 123-03. TLT has nearly reached its 98.50 target.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes should encounter strong resistance at 120. Weakness below 115-08 will mean that the trend has turned downward.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is establishing an important low but another drop down into the 104-105 zone is likely before a sustained rally can begin.

XLE - OIH - USO – March Crude: Resistance stands at 95.00. I think that crude is headed for 75.00 and eventually much lower than that. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - April Gold: Switching to the April contract. I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 885 level in the April contract.

SLV - March Silver: I am raising my silver target to 1900-2000 to keep it in line with the gold target of 1000. Support still stands at 1500.

Google: Google broke 515 support yesterday so is now headed down to 450.

Monday, February 04, 2008

Guessimtates on February 4, 8:40 am ET

piders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I now think the futures will make it into the 1420-1430 zone before a break of 60 points or more begins. In any case I think the January 22 low is going to hold on any test and that in three or four months the average will be above the 1600 level.

QQQ: I think the Q’s are headed for 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: Support is at 118-00 but weakness below there will mean that the market has started and extended drop. Meantime I think the bonds still have a shot at the 2003 top of 123-03. TLT has nearly reached its 98.50 target.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes should encounter strong resistance at 120. Weakness below 115-08 will mean that the trend has turned downward.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is establishing an important low but another drop down into the 104-105 zone is likely before a sustained rally can begin.

XLE - OIH - USO – March Crude: Resistance stands at 95.00. I think that crude is headed for 75.00 and eventually much lower than that. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - April Gold: Switching to the April contract. I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 885 level in the April contract too.

SLV - March Silver: I am raising my silver target to 1900-2000 to keep it in line with the gold target of 1000. Support still stands at 1500.

Google: Google is at 515 support and I think a move to new bull market highs will start from here.

Friday, February 01, 2008

Cash S&P

Here is a daily chart of the cash S&P 500. I last commented on this market here.

I think the January 22 low around 1270 in cash and 1256 in the e-mini March futures will hold. Today the market has traded visibly aobve the January 9 low at 1378 and this means the market will probably get pretty close to the January 10 high at 1429 before a significant reaction sets it. The initial box for the current rally is 100 points wide and the 1/2 point of the second box is at 1420. This reinforces the significance of the 1420-30 resistance zone.

I think that we shall see this average trade above the 1600 level in the next 3 or 4 months. But before this happens I also expect to see at least one break of 100 or so S&P points. If that break starts from the 1420-30 zone then it would find support near the 1/2 point of the first box at 1320.

Another Nail in the Bear Market Coffin

Here is the latest cover of The New Yorker magazine. It depicts Humpty Dumpty about to take a great fall from the roof of the New York Stock Exchange.

The New Yorker rarely has covers dealing with economic affairs so I regard this one as particularly significant. It reinforces the case I last made in the post you can find here that public and media sentiment is as bearish as it was at the 1990 low and at the 2002 low. I think this market is headed much higher.

Guesstimates on February 1, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I expect to see the futures stall around the 1408 level and then react again, possibly all the way down to 1300 or so. In any case I think the January 22 low is going to hold on any test and that in three or four months the average will be above the 1600 level.

QQQ: I think the Q’s are headed for 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: Support is at 118-00 but weakness below there will mean that the market has started and extended drop. Meantime I think the bonds still have a shot at the 2003 top of 123-03. TLT has nearly reached its 98.50 target.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes should encounter strong resistance at 120. Weakness below 115-08 will mean that the trend has turned downward.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is establishing an important low but another drop down into the 104-105 zone is likely before a sustained rally can begin.

XLE - OIH - USO – March Crude: Resistance stands at 95.00. I think that crude is headed for 75.00 and eventually much lower than that. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - February Gold: I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 885 level.

SLV - March Silver: I am raising my silver target to 1900-2000 to keep it in line with the gold target of 1000. Support still stands at 1500.

Google: I think a move to new bull market highs will begin soon. The 515 level is support.