Here is a five minute bar chart of today's e-mini trading. I have drawn a blue rectangle to represent my estimate of tomorrow's daytime trading range - about 20 points from 790 to 770.Today's volume was relatively low - especially in light of the steady drop all day which carried the market below last Wednesday's low at 787. This low volume partly explains why the day's range was 5 points narrower than I had expected this morning. On the other hand slow activity on the way down is consistent with my view that we are seeing a normal reaction in an uptrend. I think it will last through this week and carry the market down to 750 or so. Near the low I expect to see a sudden upsurge in volume, perhaps in response to some negative news.
Once this reaction is complete I expect to see the market rally to 875 and then into the 900-910 range.
4 comments:
"The Art of Contrarian Trading" by Carl Futia July 09
MY SENTIMENTS EXACTLY
im not sure if todays lows
are the lows of this reaction
yet the decline last the same amount of time as the initial 3 wave decline from march 23rd to march 25th . and from march 23rd high to march 25th low the decline
from the march 26th high to todays low was just a little over 1.618 times the initial move in the same amount of time as the initial move .the 5 day trin sum closed today at its most oversold reading of the past month ( not a typo )
at 9.41 , readings this high are typical in bear markets and counter trend lows , the 10 trin closed today at 1.32 moves above 1.40 are typical in pull backs yet
this past year this indicator has not been so reliable . the lindsay time spans from the may 2 2008 and the aug 11 2008 high have now been
satisfied with 332 days and 231 days repectiveley . weather tomorrow proves to be bullish or not remains to be seen yet there is now more compelling evidance to
that this decline while short term in nature is coming to an end if not all ready over .
good luck carl
joe
I think it will last through this week and carry the market down to 750 or so. Near the low I expect to see a sudden upsurge in volume, perhaps in response to some negative news. ---Carl
=====================
hmm you mean job number on friday,
you have been very spot on recently Carl with your intermediate forecast
Carl,
IWM has proven to be a good advance indicator for me. To me, IWM's behavior today is indicating that, in the short-term, the trend may be up.
Post a Comment