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Friday, March 20, 2009
Out at 765.50
7 comments:
Anonymous
said...
Hi carl this is going to sound a bit complicated . i have to equal counts on the dow one is this will become a simple decline into the 7150 to 7044 price range into the next cycle low march 23rd 27th . the second is we are in a complicated narrowing triangle on the dow which began march 16th i deal with timing and patterns much more then actual price , and i use the dow because i have done most my long term historical work on it . my cycles called for a high march 16th and a low from march 23rd to the 27th . the wave count is so far ( 1 ) ( 2 ) 1 2 3 4 5 or ( 1 ) ( 2 ) 1 2 3 into march 16th which implies all of this in a 4th wave triangle . the key in terms of price would then be the march 17th low at 7172.05 if that holds then the triangle should prove correct . to go one further . this would label the march 17th low at 7172.05 point A the recent highs at 7571.64 point B and this means some time by early to mid day monday the dow should poke below todays low and break 7257.27 yet hold above the march 17th low at 7172.05 that would place point C on the chart and project point D just above 7462.44 which would then leave us with final point E in the price area of 7313 . if this proves to be correct then it would fit withing the bearish cycles from march 16th to march 23rd 27th .correction do 2 things give up price and give up time yet so far the dow has been giving up more time then price . next week should then be points C D E . or C ends by the close today . 2 scenerios both i see as equal counts good luck Joe
Carl, it's been an exceptional week: FOMC day and expiration Friday. I noticed these two days were not when you performed at best. I guess you've done statistics on that. My trading also suffers on FOMC days and expiration Fridays. So I do not trade on those days. Many thanks for the week! Greetings from Germany, Val
yeah, carl, great analysis and great strategy. As jesse livermore said, the hardest & most important thing to do as a speculator is to sit on your hands through a play. Though it did look like a pull back with that lower low at 2:45.
My work tells me these markets are going to move lower again this coming week. My near term indicators are still very overbought and the action of the past few days hasn't had any effect on the overbought condition in these markets.
I was wrong. To my suprise, the futures are significantly higher at this moment. In fact, the high is 786.00 in the major contract. It certainly looks like this is the actual bottom and building a base for the next move higher after all. For a confirmed major buy signal I would need a close above 787.20 for Monday, and a close above 777.50 for Tuesday, we're already above Tuesday's signal price, so I suspect we'll have that confirmation as long as we don't work lower from here, right now the futures are just under my buy signal. The overnight high of 786.00 is just a few ticks from my buy signal. The key importance here is that this would be the first major buy signal since last September's when my model issued its first major sell signal at 1285.10. Of course, I wasn't short all this time, I only wish I were, but my model was and is now about to issue a major buy signal provided we close above 787.20 on Monday or 777.50 on Tuesday.
7 comments:
Hi carl
this is going to sound a bit complicated . i have to equal counts on the dow one is this will
become a simple decline into the
7150 to 7044 price range into the next cycle low march 23rd 27th .
the second is we are in a complicated narrowing triangle on the dow which began march 16th
i deal with timing and patterns much more then actual price , and i use the dow because i have done most my long term historical work on it . my cycles called for a high march 16th and a low from march 23rd to the 27th . the wave count is so far ( 1 ) ( 2 ) 1 2 3
4 5 or ( 1 ) ( 2 ) 1 2 3 into march 16th which implies all of this in a 4th wave triangle .
the key in terms of price would then be the march 17th low at 7172.05 if that holds then the triangle should prove correct .
to go one further . this would label the march 17th low at 7172.05 point A the recent highs at 7571.64 point B and this means some time by early to mid day monday the dow should poke below
todays low and break 7257.27 yet hold above the march 17th low at 7172.05 that would place point C
on the chart and project point D just above 7462.44 which would then leave us with final point E
in the price area of 7313 .
if this proves to be correct then it would fit withing the bearish cycles from march 16th to march 23rd 27th .correction do 2 things give up price and give up time yet so far the dow has been giving up more time then price . next week should then be points C D E .
or C ends by the close today .
2 scenerios both i see as equal counts
good luck
Joe
Sold my 2 units from earlier posts at 769.50 +1.5pts from an average of 68
carl, your plan B worked. why did you get out before hand? 772 is where you wanted to get out right?
Carl,
it's been an exceptional week: FOMC day and expiration Friday. I noticed these two days were not when you performed at best. I guess you've done statistics on that. My trading also suffers on FOMC days and expiration Fridays. So I do not trade on those days. Many thanks for the week! Greetings from Germany, Val
yeah, carl, great analysis and great strategy. As jesse livermore said, the hardest & most important thing to do as a speculator is to sit on your hands through a play. Though it did look like a pull back with that lower low at 2:45.
Hi Carl,
My work tells me these markets are going to move lower again this coming week. My near term indicators are still very overbought and the action of the past few days hasn't had any effect on the overbought condition in these markets.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
Hi Carl,
I was wrong. To my suprise, the futures are significantly higher at this moment. In fact, the high is 786.00 in the major contract. It certainly looks like this is the actual bottom and building a base for the next move higher after all. For a confirmed major buy signal I would need a close above 787.20 for Monday, and a close above 777.50 for Tuesday, we're already above Tuesday's signal price, so I suspect we'll have that confirmation as long as we don't work lower from here, right now the futures are just under my buy signal. The overnight high of 786.00 is just a few ticks from my buy signal. The key importance here is that this would be the first major buy signal since last September's when my model issued its first major sell signal at 1285.10. Of course, I wasn't short all this time, I only wish I were, but my model was and is now about to issue a major buy signal provided we close above 787.20 on Monday or 777.50 on Tuesday.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
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