Here is a five minute bar chart of today's e-mini day session. I shorted one unit at each of the two red arrows and covered both at the green arrow. I covered because the market was taking too long to make a new low after the rally high that I faded. This, combined with the facts that the the range was relatively narrow compared with what I had been expecting and that the market had, for the third consecutive day, pulled a U-turn after a strong opening rally, made me reluctant to push my luck on the bear side. Events show that I was too cautious, but I have survived for forty years in the market by choosing to be safe instead of sorry.I think the market tomorrow is going to reverse its pattern of the past three days by showing weakness during the first 90 minutes of trading and then rallying for the rest of the session. My best guess for tomorrow's low is the 655 level.
5 comments:
What website/program are you using to generate these charts?
Hi Carl,
I sold my 670.00 long at 675.00 into the close, I don't like the way it looks.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
Carl,
I dare to make a "forecast" on the eminis instead of just being grateful for your observations. The lack of huge volume when ES reached the lowest Low (665,75;since the bear market started) on Friday is what makes me wonder if the selling has not been done yet. The volume at November's Low (739) and the previuos day were 25% larger than last Thursday and Friday. And the appearance of buyers registered on the TICK the next days after the Low was reached is also not present in this situation. So I am waiting for the bears to complete their selling. Many thanks for your work! Greetings from Germany, Val
Carl,
I have a few questions about the emini S&P that you trade... I have been traded the emini on simulated trading and wanted to know if there was a real big difference between live and sim trading?
Aside from the emotions and that ur playing with real money, what else is different?
Do u get filled on orders?
Is contract size a problem?
These are the only two I can think of. Can you tell me any others.
Thanks in advance.
Don
Hi Carl,
I just want to say thank you for sharing your trading and your approach to the market. More than anything for me, you show us how you prepare each day:
1. Pre-game plan
2. Clearly define where the plan become right or wrong.
3. How to styay objective and always reassess.
I am learning something great as I saw how you dealt with your initial trade then promptly switched to Plan B.
Thank you
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