Here is a 30 minute bar chart showing the e-mini day sessions for the past week. I am growing more confident that the high volume up move after the Fed announcement was a buying climax (green arrows). This by itself would indicate a several day pause in the up trend. But on the way down from today's high (so far) at 800.50 we saw volume as high as on the way up. (red arrows). If the market stays below 792 I think the odds are good that this is a supply shock. A supply shock in this situation would turn the short term trend down. I would then expect a drop of 50 - 75 points from today's high before a new up trend can start.I am expecting a daytime range of about 30 points tomorrow, but I can't yet make any estimate for the location of its high and low.
15 comments:
i know you are talking about the june futures but what do you see here for the s&p 500.. we are at 792.67 at this moment... any insight would be GREATLY appreciated
do you still believe that the market is going to drop 50-75? I can't see where the june futures closed but the s&p 500 closed at 794.34 so what are you thoughts?
Carl,
Nice work, by the way. Your call is for a 50-75 point drop from here, hell, I'll even take 150 points..not that I'm greedy to the downside. Seems we need to return where we started from and capitulate and then start a real rally. Real bottoms start with a S&P500 P/E much lower than where we are now.
The Capitulators have already capitulated. They are all looking for a chance to buy at new lows on capitulation. I don't think they will get it.
Hey Carl, I've asked you a couple questions here and I'm not getting a response. Are we still getting the 50 point drop. I listen intensely to your comments and greatly appreciate all your insight and I am just hoping for a response to what you think of the potential still of a 50-75 point drop? I got stuck with the call from yesterday when you thought, like I did that we would see 735 yesterday. Unfortunately, I missed my change to cover and now am miserably underwater and missed all of today's action. I shorted at 755 and 760. I would greatly appreciate your comments!
This is one of the reasons why I think mkt topped
http://www.flickr.com/photos/valeriobr/3366423062/sizes/o/
Bottom? The whole herd thought the Nov low was the bottom until a new low appeared in March. Carl, this is a bear market, may we remind you. These 'giddish' (tickle your fancy) rallies come about once in awhile. Matter in fact, we just had a 80W low around the Mar6-9th. Can that be a reason for the rally?
Another great post, Carl, and much appreciated! Have a nice evening.
I'm not a big fan of Elliott wave, but you could count the entire rally as 5 waves where the 5th was a long ending diagonal beginning around cash 715. This implies a fairly quick return to near where the diagonal started, so that would fit your supply shock scenario.
Hi carl
i look at different things then you do , but after digging through the market after the close my bias is we either topped today or will do so in the next few days .
internally at the very least the momentum should decline .
im looking to book my gains tomorrow and im going to let this
correction run its course over the next several days . my cycles still have monday the 23rd to friday the 27th as the next cycle low . the fact that the market went up from the march 16th cycle high is a bullish sign longer term as is the break back above 7292
so while this market may grind higher im placing resistance at todays highs and support at 7324
on the dow .the most bullish expectations for me would be a sideways move with 7328 holding
well see soon enough regardless im going to take most of my bullish trades off the table tomorrow
ES still has legs. No reversal yet. Stay long.
well the fed is all in--no more bullets left. If this doesnt work, as the case would be, expect a much lower bottom
(IMO) If today wasn't the top then Thursday will be. Very overbought McClellan Osc at 80. very extreme overbought level.
jack
Carl,
I agree with your pullback of 50-75 pts., but first need to see some confirmation! Also, would be healthy for the next leg up... My prediction is that we are heading in the 1000-1100 range by the summer!
Good Luck
ex
Dear 4:27 pm:
Why didn't you cover When I went long Wednesday morning at 768. Why didn't you cover when I reiterated at least twice before the Fed announcement that the market was headed for 783 on Wednesday?
Now you want some advice specifically tailored to your situation. Sorry, I am not an investment advisor and I do not help individuals with their investment problems. Perhaps you might be better off not trading at all (See the link:
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2005/04/should-you-speculate.html
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