Here is a five minute bar chart of today's e-mini action. I think the market just put in a selling climax (red arrows) at midpoint support (purple dotted line). If I'm right then tomorrow's range will be about 25 points with its low near 792 and its high near 817 (blue rectangle).Weakness below 790 on increasing volume would mean that I was faked out by the move above the 800 level and that the short term trend is indeed downward. Failing that, however, I am expecting a bullish day tomorrow.
8 comments:
A new quarter starts tomorrow. I wonder how much of this resistence to the 50 dma is related to funds looking for some last minute gains? I'm leaning toward more selling pressure going forward.
Keep in mind that this is the "G20 week"...probably the most important meeting of our young century...
Here are some informations from Europe. This is going to be messy.
France is on the brink to a social revolution, and President Sarkozy already said that he would leave the meeting if agreements on a new international regulation on the financial system would not be met.
Germany is by far the number one in Europe. Germans want a 2.000.000.000.000 fund to relief the economy AND don't want any regulation.
Russia want to challenge the dollar and go back to some gold standard.
The UK want someone to buy its bonds or their well print as much as they need
THE USA want Japan and China to buy their bills
Japan just launched another 100.000.000.000$ stimulus package... As well as China...
What a mess
One thing is for sure, if those guys can't find a clear plan and a message of hope, one could see a major sell off...
fingers crossed
Very ugly close...
Hi Carl,
I wasn't impressed with the close today, I dumped my longs at 791.00 into the close and am now flat for the evening.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
Hi Carl,
Great calls on the last few days. This call I would tend to agree with you on if the market closed above 800. i am thinking it might touch the 750.
Hi Carl,
Looking at the downside, a trade below 774.80 tomorrow will give me a sell signal, and a close tomorrow below that price will confirm a near term top has been made.
I took a short position just now at 787.00, it's a bit late, but I suspect we'll see that sell signal soon enough.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
The move yesterday was a big move down, a correction to a still bigger move up that lasted almost 3 weeks. The move up today was a correction to the move down of yesterday. It retraced exactly 0.618 of yesterday's down move.
ES will retest 775, yesterday's low.
Because the retracement was over 50%, the 775 level will most probably not break and this would complete the correction to the big up move.
However, as the move up today was on low volume and a part of window dressing, the move down may break 775, with a probability smaller than that of breaking, and then may test the next major supports at 750 and 740.
After completion of the current move down, a strong move up will then take place. It will be strong because it will be an Elliot Wave 3.
Hi Carl,
I just covered my 787.00 short and went long at 787.00, I may as well wait for my sell signal before I jump on it. Besides, we could get a suprise and rally today.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
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