Here is a 5 minute bar chart of the last eight days of trading in the cash S&P 500. I have highlighted each days trend with red (if down) and green (if up) lines. As you can see the sellers have dominated for seven of the past eight days. During the first four sellers' days the average fell easily. During the past three downside progress was muhc more grudging as shown by the fact that their trading ranges show substantial overlap. I think this means that we are about to see a stretch of time with more up days than down days. Good volume above the 700 level will mean that a substantial rally is underway.
Monday, March 09, 2009
Relentless
Here is a 5 minute bar chart of the last eight days of trading in the cash S&P 500. I have highlighted each days trend with red (if down) and green (if up) lines. As you can see the sellers have dominated for seven of the past eight days. During the first four sellers' days the average fell easily. During the past three downside progress was muhc more grudging as shown by the fact that their trading ranges show substantial overlap. I think this means that we are about to see a stretch of time with more up days than down days. Good volume above the 700 level will mean that a substantial rally is underway.
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4 comments:
Carl,
I hope you are correct because my April Calls on QLD that I got in on Friday need some help after today
Successful trading
Jack
Carl, while I am in the camp that buyers are due to take control, i just dont see any signs what could serve as catalyst for buyers to step up. Today was a very good day for bulls to drive a runaway move with the big opening reversal and all, yet, failed. This kind of action is dangerous, as it could lead to complete give up (and a crash). History has shown that all crash moves have started from oversold conditions.
Do you really think the reversal at open and subsequent pull-back was that crushing to the bulls? Do you think there are many bulls left that don't have a tremendous stomach and realize that this is a process? Everybody is waiting for capitulation, I think this ends without everybody running for the exits, poof and it's over. There are a lot of people leaning to one side, that's a lot of flesh for the taking.
Slipsham:
I agree. I think the capitulators have already capitulated.
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