Here is a daily chart of the cash S&P 500 along with daily trading volume for stocks in the index (courtesy of StockCharts.com). Yesterday's up day is highlighted by the second pair of red arrows. What I find interesting is that yesterday's trading volume was higher than on any previous up day shown on this chart with the exception of the up day which kicked off the rally from the November 21 low near 740. That rally carried the market up 200 points. This is one reason why I think another 200 point rally has started.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
High volume up day
Here is a daily chart of the cash S&P 500 along with daily trading volume for stocks in the index (courtesy of StockCharts.com). Yesterday's up day is highlighted by the second pair of red arrows. What I find interesting is that yesterday's trading volume was higher than on any previous up day shown on this chart with the exception of the up day which kicked off the rally from the November 21 low near 740. That rally carried the market up 200 points. This is one reason why I think another 200 point rally has started.
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8 comments:
This is a very basic question I understand that but the red arrows as well as trend lines you place on your graphs from StockCharts.com, are those done manually or from the site itself.
carl i hate when you are making money! but you have been on fire dammit
Hi Carl,
The price action in the S&P continues to provide more of the same clues: now is not the time to become overly bearish!
# I expect to see a retest of the breakout point 741 (2008 lows) to 768. As a rule of thumb, breakouts tend to be retested.
# The normal impulse move for the 13-week swing is 32% with a standard deviation of 15%. The current down move from the May 08 highs (1440 basis cash) to Friday’s low (668) is 53.7%. This is into the mean +2 standard deviations. Theoretically there is only a 2.5% chance of further downside. I prefer to say we are moderately oversold.
# Seasonally we can expect a rally to begin end March to early April peaking end April to early May.
# The 13-week swing move from 1440 to 668 has taken 41 weeks which is mean time. The standard deviation is 12 weeks. So ‘normal time’ could be up to 53 weeks.
# Normal time, greater than normal price range is an ideal pattern for a rally following the initial breakout. We have that now.
cheers
Susn
I had presumed you might buy the EM's down in this range...
HI CARL
im wondering if you ever use lindsay's count from the mid section in shorter term charts
since im not very educated on all
of lindsay's work im asking if you could touch on it in the future
in the mean time ill read your notes on it . todays decline was
relatively short in both time and price which leaves me with a mixed
picture .i have a bullish bias into june yet something is amiss
with todays action . im overlooking something i think
anyway if you could touch on the mid section count sometime id appreciate it .
good lluck
joe
I think that volume data is incorrect
i am really surprised with your trading--after getting out of the rally why didnt you take the higher probability trade of fading it..This will go 100 points down, just on profit taking..or do you think people have stopped doing that anymore..
Hi carl
ill bring up the mid section count again after reading what you wrote
first of all im looking at a 13 minute chart of the dow and i realise that the mid section count is a longer term theory but my belief is that if a theory works
then it should begin to show up in shorter term charts . the mid section count is complicated as i am sure you know very well .
but there are some similarities im seeing visually that are telling me to pay attention to it on the 13minute dow chart . i would be very
interested in your thoughts if you have time to post . i realise of course that there is always a big if in trading .looking at your basic schematic i have point E placed in 2 places yet both are march 10th on the 13 minute chars
if point E was the 6880.70 high
then point aa just ended if i count point E at the the early morning high on march 10th at 6822.31 high then we have some more time left to point aa and if i count from C which would be mondays ( march 9th swing high )
at 6660.15 then there is even more time . just making note of this as i find it all very interesting .
using an elliott wave count i can make 5 waves up on the 13 minute bar chart so my bias is we are in either a wave 2 or a wave B with more upside to follow . with overall bearish sentiment near or at extremes my bias is the masses are in denial which means we grind higher which is why i bring up the count from the mid section on such a short term 13 minute chart .
small trends become bigger trends is all . to soon to get excited about all this but if im right it will prove benificial and i think you would be a good refrence going forward which is why i point this out and ask .
no more questions just hoping you see something valid with my thoughts
thanks again joe
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