We just started this phase of the bear market so in my opinion it is way too early to be looking at contrarian indicators. I was always of the impression that this was an extreme indicator. I do not see the extreme behavior say like that of late February 2009 when nearly 95% of all those were bearish and every single person was scared to go LONG. I just don't see that tone being that drastic now.
" On this basis we should expect AAPL to move higher for the next 3 or 4 months. But 12 months from now it is very likely that AAPL will be selling substantially lower that it is now."
4 comments:
Heard 4/5 of gurus have been forecasting lower levels. Did the VIX drop 12% today?
Carl,
We just started this phase of the bear market so in my opinion it is way too early to be looking at contrarian indicators. I was always of the impression that this was an extreme indicator. I do not see the extreme behavior say like that of late February 2009 when nearly 95% of all those were bearish and every single person was scared to go LONG. I just don't see that tone being that drastic now.
I am in in the bear camp now. I have become a day trader.
Carl,
This is from your Apple post on April 5:
" On this basis we should expect AAPL to move higher for the next 3 or 4 months. But 12 months from now it is very likely that AAPL will be selling substantially lower that it is now."
(http://theartofcontrariantrading.blogspot.com/2010/04/apple-bubble.html)
It is now three months since that post.
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