Thursday, September 02, 2010

Guesstimates on September 2, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1075-1093. The ES is headed for 1140 and higher

QQQQ: Headed for 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 126.00 and from there a move into the 135-40 zone should start.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke decisively below its 85.50 support. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

October Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


straightshooter1000 said...

If ES gets near that 1075 should be a good buy in, If it does get there, probably won't stay long.

Edwin said...

latest news:

"Rail traffic explodes to highest level of the year last week 692k cars vs previous high 679k (4wks ago)"

Double dip is coming?

Edwin said...

A buy signal has been triggered this morning in my play book when both RSI and 50 day SMA are above the value of 50.

Folks. Do you own diligence.

tempo said...

about 25% of rail traffic is due to ethonal shipments and total shipments are way below 2008 levels. Expect short positions to increase at 1085 to 1090 if we reach that level.

Naveedah said...

Let’s not forget, S&P 500 companies can still generate EPS growth outside the US.
Think about it this way, Corporations generate $450 billion annually in profits OUTSIDE the US. Let’s say 80% of those profits are generated by S&P 500 companies, that is $360 billion, or $40 per S&P 500 share.
Actually,my Masters in ECONOMICS is working in trading.

extrader said...

I think the market will test the 1074 area now, before making a new high for today! jmo


extrader said...

I believe yesterdays rally was a bull trap and now think we will break below 1037 next week when all the big boys are back from vacation!


Edwin said...

We have internal (negative)divergence to work off. It will take time to consolidate and don't be surprised if price drops. I will buy the dip unless we drop below 50 days SMA.

Edwin said...

Two(2) additional bullish TA achievements today.

1. we have a MACD bullish cross.

2. SPX closed above the Bollinger band median.

Folks...there is no reason to stay short for now.

dcatlowpj said...

We are 50% retraced in the Aug run range. Interesting. Soon, it will be contrary to go short as the press will say, "it's over, go long, come on back retail traders!"

Except, THIS time, they won't. Baby Boomers, who were the big retail entrants over the past 15 years have exhausted their interest in being in the market...which provides the stupid money to the smart movers. Even the Brokers are running scared. Trading volumes are hitting lows. Bonds will not roll over any time soon simply because of the carry trade for the Banks. My Bond portfolio has beaten the S&P since 1999 easily. The 90's are over now.

We are in a parabolic shift. Time to perceive this as a trader's market where fools will not "rush in" this time because they are all retiring and wanting to preserve capital. Even their luscious Real Estate holdings are extinguished. This is quite sad.

My real estate holdings (whittle now by just our primary home which we sold last Sept) are continuing to drop. Land in Shasta County, Ca and Santa Rosa condo's...all diminished by 45% or more. Even the land won't move! All in all, I will keep rolling my bonds, with deflation making even cash "make money." Watch your economics. Even the Fed has run out of tools. Why would anyone lend money to re-finance DEFLATIONARY ASSETS such as Commercial Real Estate? The answer is NO ONE. The banks will not lend to refi because they will not allow realized losses on the underlying asset, our homes. Refi and diminishing value? Would you lend money to your neighbor to refi his mortgage when you know both of your homes have deflated. NO WAY.

Nope, folks we are in a world of hurt.

Brought to you by someone who is old enough to know the pain because he has made all of those mistakes including lending family money...only to lose a fortune in all of it!

Now, go LONG because of this rant alone. I am marking a bottom: hopelessness.