Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Head and Shoulders Breakout

Here is a daily chart of 24 hour trading in the e-minis. I last commented on this chart here.

I think we are witnessing a breakout (blue arrow) above a slightly descending neckline of a classic head and shoulder formation. Volume is till modest, but that is largely because this formation developed at the low of a five month trading range.

I expect the market to churn in the 1120-40 range for a couple of days and then head higher. Next upside target is around 1175, the high of the trend channel and the level of the 1174 high in mid-May.

The entire head and shoulders measures a move to 1250 according to classical bar chart theory. I think this latter target is too conservative. My best guess is that this market is on its way above 1300.


Laurence said...

A move back to 1120 would imply a failed breakout wouldn't it?

dcatlowpj said...

THere's a flaw in your upper trendline...properly drawn would bring the upper target below 1200.

I enjoy these charts, Carl.