Thursday, August 18, 2011

Guesstimates on August 18, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1150-1175. I think the ES is on its way to 1130. From there a rally to 1220-30 is likely.

QQQ: Support is 50.00 and upside target is now 58.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is near its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think this market is now headed for 1.5300. Support remains at 142.00.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

August Crude: Crude has dropped as low as 75. Resistance above the market is now at 92 and the next step down should take it to 70. I think this is a bear market in crude which is likely to continue down into the 50-60 range.

GLD – December Gold: The market has traded as high as 1821, a new high for the bull market. I still think gold is going to have a hard time moving much above 1810 before it drops to 1450 or so.

SLV - September Silver: Resistance is at 41.00. Any strength above 43.00 would mean that the move will continue above 50.00.

Google: I think a move to 750 and above is underway. Support is at 530.

Apple: Upside target is 435. Support is at 345.


extrader said...


I was dead wrong... on my 1240-60 prediction.

Bill said...

I think the big question right now is whether the US economy will be able to avoid a recession. The mid atlantic factory activity index showed that the economy is contracting right now. This news is what's driving all the selling today. The stock market drop is unfortunate in itself, the fact that main street is right now following wall street is more disturbing. We just got out from the worst recession since the 1930's and now another one is coming. I guess economists will conclude that you can't print your way to prosperity. There was something odd in itself about this recession, commodity prices never stayed low. After the recession that ended in the 80's Gold dropped from over $700 to below $200 an ounce, oil dropped from $48 a barrell down to $8 or $9 and it stayed low. The economy and stocks boomed while oil stayed low. This is what we need a decoupling of oil from the stock market and the economy, this is what healthy recoveries are based on. And this may mean that money printing and healthy recovery are not compatible, since money printing drives up commodity prices.

Bill said...

I sure hope I'm wrong and this is just a soft patch and no full blown recession will follow.

modernarms said...

Hi Carl, what is the significance of ES 1130 level or is it just a measured move? thx

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
is there a mini 3 peaks domed house pattern forming on the emini futures 24 hour 60 minute chart ? point 10 being this mornings low ??
on the cash market using 15 minute chart its not as clean yet if we hold this mornings low the case can be made point 10 is in and this sideways move would be ponts 11 and 12 forming , this year options expiry have been short term lows

tempo said...

Market paying alot of attention to Italy's 10 rates and spread to German 10 year. Spread jumped from about 2.2% (1250 spx) to 5% (spx 1100); back to 2.5% (spx 1200) now 2.7% and climbing (spx selling off). My point is that credit issues are serious in EU and GDP growth is near zero everywhere.

Zero Cool said...

i don't think we will see 1130 , we have seen the bottom , tomorrow is opex day.. and will be even tomorrow... we start to rally from monday back on..

modernarms said...

@ Zero Cool: I agree, much of the option activity surrounded the SPX1180 area so I am also looking for a rebound by tomorrow. Question is, why did we go to 1130 so darn fast? that was 61% retracement of the entire last up move in one day! If/when we get to SPX1220 area, everyone will be bullish again, then a lower low is on the way into Sept.

Adsense said...

Hi carl
i posted the mini 3 peaks pattern along with a midsection count using a 15 minute spx cash chart
for you to look at it . i find this time frame interesting from many methods . options expiry has tended to be lows this year and a sideways move for a few hours running into friday would fit which would be a set up for a move up next week ?? given the time frame im working with i would have to assume a very fast move which implies some kind of news event which i tend to ignore .
worth a look at the least in case this works

good luck