Thursday, August 04, 2011

Guesstimates on August 4, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: I think the market is about to begin a rally which will take the ES above 1300 and eventually above 1400. Today's day session range estimate is 1236-1264.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think this market is now headed for 1.5300. Support is at 142.00.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

August Crude: A rally to 103-104 likely.

GLD – December Gold: Next stop is 1750. Support is at 1570.

SLV - September Silver: Resistance is at 41.00. Any strength above 43.00 would mean that the move will continue above 50.00.

Google: I think a move to 750 and above is underway.

Apple: Upside target is now 415.

26 comments:

Harry said...

It's very unusual that yesterdays closing hammer candlesticks have failed. We need to close above 1249 today otherwise it makes no sense to hold longs.

paul said...

The ever bullish Carl.
I wish I had your stamina.
I've been doing some buying and keep getting slaughtered!
Now I pray that its not a 'slope of hope!' like 2008.

Kishore said...

A "bottom" a day will find the right bottom someday!

mroz7878 said...

It looks to me like the domed house was formed between July of 2010 to May of 2011. This Bull phase has run out of time.

Carl can you comment on the timing of the bull run from the March 2009 lows? It seems to be long in the tooth?

Harry said...

Carl,

On devastating days like this your thoughts would be most appreciated.

Harry

Bill said...

1224 on S&P cash market should be strong resistance. And if it were to break down I think there's further resistance in the 1212 and 1180 areas. that said this sell off is the worse since October 2008.

Harry said...

Basically this is a crash. Mini crash but a crash.

silverlining said...

Check the record. Carl made money despite being wrong on direction many times. That should be the real lesson, but everyone seems to want a magic oracle that can predict the future.

Adsense said...

carl
i mentioned the larger 3 peaks domed house pattern the other day
the dow peaked in what could be called a long advance the time spans fit and that leaves a posible point 3 4 5 in place that was between 6 and 8 months . this would place us into points 7 8 9 and 10 . time wise we still have to deal with the bear market time spans as well as the mid section count you noted yet never labeled back in 2010 . and then thee is the 12 year 3 month to 12 year 8 month high to low count from jan march 2000 which calls for a low in mid to late 2012 .
thanks for the updates
joe

straightshooter2000 said...

Carl,

Does this qualify as a "there's blood in the streets" moment?

Win said...

Strength folks. We bottom today. We're going to get a monster bounce from here, just be patient in holding onto your longs.

GMoney said...

Just shy of 50 handles in the ES from the globex high to the RTH low. Is anyone buying this here? I'm inclined to sell the rips but with a tight stop of course I don't want to get caught in the move to 1400...

Rob said...

The ultimate contrarian trade is to buy long when this blog has a large number of negative comments directed toward Carl.

Win said...

Everyone who has a time horizon of more than 1 day should be buying! I am laughing at the headlines.

Just one chart, among many.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=W&yr=4&mn=5&dy=0&id=p44608524031&a=234623991

Win said...

Please excuse the gratuitous advice in the last comment. I ought to have said, I am buying. If these levels break, then 1180-90 is next target and then 1135-50. However, IMHO, we get a strong bounce here. And these are all extremely good buy and hold points.

huggybear said...

Top pickers and bottom pickers are cotton pickers!

MadMax said...

Any update for the "Three Peaks and a Domed House" count?

Adi said...

Judging by the intrday reading on the put/call ratio, I think too many are looking for a bottom too early.

The bottom may come in around 1180 SPX tomorrow.

Charts of the cpc and how I projected to this level, here:

http://a-d-trading.blogspot.com/2011/08/bottom.html

GMoney said...

Selling the rips continuing to work. :-)

David said...

Is this market ovesold ?

Harry said...

The volume of the breakdown, over 3 billion on NASDAQ, is a classic bear market signal.

JG Smith said...

I've seen this pattern many times - a key reversal day followed by a wicked move the other way. The key reversal sucks investors/traders in and the quick move the other way is designed to shake out the weak and the scared. Typically, the next day (tomorrow) a strong move in the direction of the key reversal begins. I call it the Heartbreaker Shake-out pattern. Bottom line, today was the large professionsal traders scaring the rest of us out of or shares. A strong move up will begin tomorrow.

modernarms said...

@ JG Smith
"Seen this pattern many times". I have looked back 5 years in the S&P500 and cannot find the reversal pattern you are referring to. Perhaps you can supply some specific dates. No disrespect intended, just want to see the pattern played out in the past. thx

JG Smith said...

Recent examples would be 3/16, 4/18, 6/24

P said...

"I think the market is about to begin a rally which will take the ES above 1300 and eventually above 1400".....

Last famous words....Isn't it time to stop this bullish story?

THE MAX FACTOR said...

During that time the blog trading account is up 39%..........
well done Carl !