Monday, August 08, 2011

Guesstimates on August 8, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1160-1197. Last week's high volume collapse was climactic and the next development will be a rally to 1250-1260. The 200 day moving average is still headed upward so I still think this 15 % drop in the cash S&P is a correction within an ongoing bull market.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think this market is now headed for 1.5300. Support remains at 142.00.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

August Crude: The market took out its last low at 90 so I think it is now headed for 80-81. My best guess is that a bear market in crude is now underway.

GLD – December Gold: Next stop is 1750. Support is at 1570.

SLV - September Silver: Resistance is at 41.00. Any strength above 43.00 would mean that the move will continue above 50.00.

Google: I think a move to 750 and above is underway.

Apple: Upside target is now 415.

32 comments:

Daniel said...

Is 1400+ still in play Carl?

a.ele said...

goal of 1400??

you were not too stubborn for that purpose?

elepĂȘ

R N said...

I am observing your daily comments for the past 10 months or so. Your your daily range estimates are usually better than mine.

However, I am at loss of words to describe your optimism in trying to catch a falling knife.
If I were to write the daily comments before 9:30am, I would word it as follows.
September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is xxxx - yyyy. There is a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows and a down-word sloping trend-line connecting the peaks of
Jul 22, Jul 27 and Aug 2. Market will continue to be in down-trend until the trend line is broken.
Aftre the market breaks out of the down-word sloping trend line, the next development will be a rally to xxxx-yyyy.

Kishore said...

A Fib retracement of 61.8% from for the July 2010 to May 2011 bull run is at 1138 for ES. If it does not stop there the next stop will be ES at 1000.

The uptrend line has been decisively broken even on monthly charts. Given the 61.8% retracement, we may, at most, see a back-end retest of the uptrend line on the montly charts.

If technical analysis is still a valid technique, in spite of all of monkey wrenches thrown at the market by the self-serving and corrupt manipulators, the decisive break of the trend line on the monthly charts should spell the end of the fake "bull market" that started in March 2009.

Piazzi said...

technical analysis is still valid depending on what one uses

Market started showing signs of structural and breadth weakness days ahead of this

Market violated key support area of 1290-1300

Market violated a bunch of short-term MAs and forced them to roll over

Market's % aboive 50 and 200 were weak into the peak

market's wekkly momentum cycle had a failure

S&P's price swing had a failure at it last peak

Now, it has violated a bunch of long term Mas

So, TA is valid as long as one can put the pieces together and make a broader picture

Harry said...

08/08/2011 Goldman Sachs cuts S&P 500 target for 2011 from 1,450 to 1,400

Edwin said...

My rough and unsophisticated Darvas Box calculation suggests the lower box target (SPX 1,370 to 1,260 to 1,150) has been met and a rally should happen very very soon.

Bill said...

European shares closed at a 2-year low, they are 2009 levels! This means North America will in all likelihood follow suit and this translates into S&P 500 below 1000. It looks inevitable that the July 2010 low will be taken out. This will be a bear market but a milder one than the 2008. The 940 or 880 level will offer strong support. Let's bear in mind that so far there has been no serious resistance at any level. Probably the first resistance should be at 1140 (since 1225 and 1180 crumbled like if it was nothing). The markets are hardly ever wrong, sad but true this drop is signalling a recession is on the way.

Kishore said...

Edwin, the nice thing about Daravs boxes is that you can keep stacking them, up or down!

extrader said...

Looks like 1103 is looking more realistic now! I thought we were going to get some bounce today, but looks like the Bear Market has just begun!

Brace yourselves looks like we are heading back down to 2008 levels.

extrader said...

A lot of damage has been done to the bullish charts... we would need lots of sideways action before we can move up to Carl's 1400 prediction, which I do not see it happening, not this year!

straightshooter2000 said...

Carl,
If you could've emphatically warned me to stay out of this damn thing, you might have been my hero.

extrader said...

Amazing how the market works!

On 11/2010 the market was around 1150 and it took a good 9mths to reach 1350.... and in 2 WEEKS it went back down to 1150!

Now I see why people are always BEARISH, you make ur money fast and then relax the rest of the year, unlike the BULLS who need years and years of the everyday grind.

pimaCanyon said...

Carl,

I would love to hear more of your thoughts re the S&P downgrade, specifically the markets reaction to it.

I agree with you that the downgrade was much ado about nothing. However, it matters little what I think or even what you think, but what the majority of market participants think. It would seem that the majority of stock market participants do not like the downgrade as the market continues to make lower lows today.

The irony is that we are seeing strength in the US Dollar AND in US Treasuries. The downgrade was to US Treasuries and they are UP today!??

What to make of this mess?

extrader said...

VIX at 40 is a double top from 2010but does that mean anything in this market?

Jeff said...

Carl,

Unfortunately you are not listening to the market and you still stubbornly want to think we are headed to 1400.00. Your need to be right seems to be outweighing any sound observations you are making about the environment. Good luck with waiting for 1400.00.

Adsense said...

Hi carl
well today the dow touched its 500 dma ( ohlc/4 ) which was sitting at 10994.23 this puts the 14 day rsi at 20.00 at this writing .
the past 2 timesd the 14 day rsi closed below 20 was july 23 2002
and sept 2001 . the spx is hitting its head and shoulders target at
1136.54 and testing its 600 dma at 1131 and change .the next lower level on the spx is 1101 and change which is the .382 retracement and this would be dow 10762-10723 . this would put the 14 day rsi below 19 . this is now just selling for the sake of selling . yet there is no proof of a bottom . will be interesting where the close is .im lightly long and will not add untill we have confirmation .
joe

extrader said...

At this point, it would be best for the US just go into a GREAT GREAT depression to start over again.... All this stuff going on QE2, jobs, etc.... Its just a BAND-AID and we all know that the whole world is hurting... nobody has money, jobs, or a home!

Stick a FORK in the Bull Market because we are almost down 20% which means the BEAR is awake!

Kishore said...

Bottom guessing, anyone?

I don't understand why we should try to buy at the bottom or try to sell at the top. The big move, i.e. wave C or wave 3, comes only after the actual bottom or the top has already been established, i.e. only after a successful retest or only after completion of wave b or wave 2.

Buying or selling based on bottom or top guessing is a very risky game. In the long run, risk takers are losers. Look at today. The bottom just fell out!!

Personally, I can only curse myself for covering too soon. But then, as they say, "no one goes broke taking a profit". They also say, "let your profits run". What to believe? Take your pick!

smcneill said...

S&P 200 DMA is turning over. Bull market over then?

JW said...

The domed house is almost complete......3pdh

Doug said...

ES printed a low today of 1114.75. I don't know how traders like Carl reconcile brutal bearish swings like we're having in light of their unrelenting bullish market view. I know I'm no good at it. At what point is the bias wrong and the trading premise broken? Just 9 trading days and 200 ES points ago Carl said:

"Guesstimates on July 27, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1317-1330. I think the debt ceiling talks are much ado about nothing. A move to 1400 is underway."

GMoney said...

I'm looking to get long at the 950-975 level at this rate we should be there sometime next week. Unless the fed announces QE3 tomorrow. As of now selling the rips still working.

smcneill said...

I would look for a rebound up to or close to the 200 MDA, then get out while you can. I don't know how we can say the bull trend isn't over.

Michael said...

After Standard & Poor downgraded US debt, demand for that same debt surged. How is that? The world continues to trust in the US ability to pay its debt. With sinking equity markets, investors seek the safety of US government bonds ( = US debt). But much of stock market losses are said to be due to the downgrading. So we have a downgrade leading to stock market losses for fear the US can't pay its debt, then we have demand for that debt as safe haven because of sinking stock markets. How crazy can it get?

Win said...

ES 1373.5 top to 1100 (bottom so far) = 19.91% drop. A bear market is in progress.

extrader said...

After looking at tons of charts tonight, I will be looking to BUY at 1103. This is the line in the sand for me and a good bounce up to 1144... then I will re evaluate the situation.

Kishore said...

extrader, did you buy at 1103? Well, it went down to 1077. I hope you were stopped out.

Guess, all my "advice" to stop guessing the bottom is still falling on deaf ears. I am outta here. This is my last post.

Goodbye, folks. And thanks, Carl, for reenforcing in me my own trading style and teaching me to ignore all advice and opinions from others! Goodbye, good luck, cheers and THANKS!

Bill said...

The volatility is unbelievable in extended hours. The S&P 500 overnight futures market was down 36 points 4 hours ago and now is up 20 points. A 56 point swing of over 5% in a matter of 4 hours? What's going on here? Sounds like QE3 is coming tomorrow and the word got out.

extrader said...

Kishore,
I do not trade after hrs because of the volume... but if we hit 1103regular hrs, i will sure go in at 1103... and yes, i always use stops!

extrader said...

These are the numbers I will be watching for Tuesday....

1103=38% Fibs retrace from 2009 Low

1037/1003=Major support areas

1019=50% Fibs retrace from 2009 Low

936=61% Fibs retrace from 2009 Low

Lets not forget that this market is in free fall mode and prolly good to lighten up on size and use wider stops... Also, just because we are looking for these support areas to get in, doesn't mean the knife will stop dead on that spot. I usually like to get in on a re-tests of support. So overnight 1103 was violated on first test then went back on retest and found some footing and futures are way up! This is a FAST market and you have to have stops or else you can easily blow out an account.

Good Luck and Be Careful out there!

smcneill said...

Mark Faber:

"The strategists in the US, mostly brainless people, who are predicting S&P between 1400 and 1500 by year end, I think they will have to re-adjust their views and I think the markets may actually go lower," he told CNBC on Tuesday.