Monday, August 29, 2011

Guesstimates on August 29, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1177-1202. The market is headed for 1210 and then for 1220-1240. Once the latter target zone is reached the bear market is likely to resume.

QQQ: Support is 50.00 and upside target is now 58.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is near its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think this market is now headed for 1.5300. Support remains at 142.00.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

September Crude: Crude has dropped as low as 75. Resistance above the market is now at 92 and the next step down should take it to 70. I think this is a bear market in crude which is likely to continue down into the 50-60 range.

GLD – December Gold: Gold is in the midst of a reaction within an ongoing bull market . Downside target is 1575. Resistance above the market is at 1820.

SLV - September Silver: Support in silver is at 35.00. From there a move to 50.00 and higher should begin.

Google: I think much bigger drop than I expected is underway. Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435. Support is at 345.


extrader said...

Do you have a price target for this BEAR market and when do you see it making a bottom?

Bill said...

I think it's a toss up. The market will probably go up and then correct at the 1240 level. But saying that it'll be a bear market is a risky bet. It may just correct 50 points and then resume its march up. If the bull market that started in March 2009 is intact, then the most likely scenario is that the lows for 2011 are in. Doug Kass who called both the March 2009 low and the July 2010 low thinks that the lows for 2011 have already been made and I second his view.

dave said...

Jesse Livermore discovered a speculative cycle very similar to 3 peaks and a dome.

chart here:

According to this Livermore cycle I bet we are now heading up to complete the 3rd peak point #6 before the HUGE speculative dome that is due 2013-2014 as the 4 and 6 year cycles top out.

chart 2

pb said...

Great call on the Market Carl