Guesstimates on September 28, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1428-40.  I expect the market to be supported in the 1420-25 range defined by the March 27 and August 21 tops. The ES is headed much higher over the next few months.

QQQ:  A move to 76 is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next resistance is 1.3350. Support is at 1.2750.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. The Japanese central bank has announced an increase in their own program of quantitative easing. But they don't have as much credibility on this score as the Fed does so I think the dollar-yen  will continue its drop to 75. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached. November Crude: The market is now is on its way to the 110-115 zone. Support is at 90-91.

GLD – December Gold:   I think gold is headed for 2300.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed above 50.00.

Google: Google has reached the 750 target and is now at historical highs. Next upside target is 790. Support stands at 700.  

Apple:  Next upside target is 718.  Support stands at 645.

domed house update

I'd like to update the status of the Dow industrials within George Linday's Three Peaks and a Domed House formation. At the top of this post is a schematic which depicts the typical example while the daily bar chart of the Dow below the schematic is labeled to show some of the key turning points as I see them.

Before going further I have to admit that I expect this  example of the 3PDH to fail in that I think this bull market has much further to go. Any drop from a clearly identified point 23 is likely to stop well above the normal target represented by point 10. But I know that many people disagree with me and I have to admit that so far the market's action is fitting the schematic very well.

My interpretation right now is that point 21 occurred at the September 14 high and that in all likelihood point 22 was yesterday's low. The market is now likely to rally to point 23 which I expect to develop during the October 10-15 time frame if this is indeed a domed house (point 23 on the chart is much later than I expect - the label was put there to make the labeling more readable). The top should not be too far above point 21 which was roughly 13650. So point 23 might occur in the 13800-14000 range.

It is possible that point 21 is still ahead of us and this would extend the life of the domed house  - I don't think this is likely.

Once possible scenario for a failed (or only partially successful) formation which is more consistent with my bull market prognosis would be a drop from point 23 only to the point 20 low or a little lower.

Guesstimates on September 27, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1427-37.  I expect the market to be supported in the 1420-25 range defined by the March 27 and August 21 tops. The ES is headed much higher over the next few months.

QQQ:  A move to 76 is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next resistance is 1.3350. Support is at 1.2750.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. The Japanese central bank has announced an increase in their own program of quantitative easing. But they don't have as much credibility on this score as the Fed does so I think the dollar-yen  will continue its drop to 75. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached. November Crude: The market is now is on its way to the 110-115 zone. Support is at 90-91.

GLD – December Gold:   I think gold is headed for 2300.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed above 50.00.

Google: Google has reached the 750 target and is now at historical highs. Next upside target is 790. Support stands at 700.  

Apple:  Next upside target is 718.  Support stands at 645.

Guesstimates on September 26, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1425-37.  I expect the market to be supported in the 1420-25 range defined by the March 27 and August 21 tops. The ES is headed much higher over the next few months.

QQQ:  A move to 76 is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next resistance is 1.3350. Support is at 1.2750.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. The Japanese central bank has announced an increase in their own program of quantitative easing. But they don't have as much credibility on this score as the Fed does so I think the dollar-yen  will continue its drop to 75. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached. November Crude: The market is now is on its way to the 110-115 zone. Support is at 90-91.

GLD – December Gold:   I think gold is headed for 2300.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed above 50.00.

Google: Google has reached the 750 target and is now at historical highs. Next upside target is 790. Support stands at 700.  

Apple:  Next upside target is 718.  Support stands at 645.

Guesstimates on September 25, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1452-62.  The ES is headed much higher over the next few months. Support beneath the market now is at 1430.

QQQ:  A move to 76 is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield): The Fed announcement is going to push bond yields much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next resistance is 1.3350.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. The Japanese central bank has announced an increase in their own program of quantitative easing. But they don't have as much credibility on this score as the Fed does so I think the dollar-yen  will continue its drop to 75. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached. November Crude: The market is now is on its way to the 110-115 zone. Support is at 90-91.

GLD – December Gold:   I think gold is headed for 2300.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed above 50.00.

Google: Google has reached the 750 target and is now at historical highs. Next upside target is 790. Support stands at 700.  

Apple:  Next upside target is 718.  Support stands at 645.

Guesstimates on September 24, 2012

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1441-52.  The ES is headed much higher over the next few months. Support beneath the market now is at 1430.

QQQ:  A move to 76 is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield): The Fed announcement is going to push bond yields much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher. Next resistance is 1.3350.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower. The Japanese central bank has announced an increase in their own program of quantitative easing. But they don't have as much credibility on this score as the Fed does so I think the dollar-yen  will continue its drop to 75. At some point the JCB will have to support the yen but this probably won't happen until the 75 level is reached. November Crude: The market is now is on its way to the 110-115 zone. Support is at 90-91.

GLD – December Gold:   I think gold is headed for 2300.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed above 50.00.

Google: Google is headed up to 750.

Apple: AAPL  has reached the 690-700 zone. Next upside target is 718.  Support stands at 645.