Guesstimates on June 30, 2016

September S&P E-mini Futures: Yesterday after the close the ES rallied nearly 9 points above the 2064-68 resistance zone and has spent most of the time since then above this zone. I now think the Brexit drop ended at 1981.50 and that the ES is headed above last year’s top at 2134.

QQQ:  The 112 level is resistance and support is at 104.

TNX (ten year note yield): I now think the drop in the 10 year yield is over or nearly so. The 2012 low yield at 1.39% should be strong support.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par.

Dollar-Yen: A bear market is underway.  The yen has bounced off of 99.00 and a rally to 104-06 is likely. Next downside target is 95.

August Crude: Crude is in a bull market. Next upside target is 55. Support is at 45.

August Gold:  A bull market is underway in gold. The upside target at 1365 has been reached. Support is now at 1250. Next upside target is 1420.

July Silver: Resistance at 18.00 has been reached. Support is at 16.00 and next upside target is 20.00.

Google: Support is 675.

Apple:  I still think the bull market in APPL is intact. However should AAPL start spending time below 90 I think continuation down to 70 will become likely.  

Facebook: Upside target is 125-127. Meantime support is at 110.

Twitter: Twitter should drop to 10. Resistance is at 16.25.

Alibaba: Now headed back to 86.

Visa: Support is at 70. Upside target is 90-95.

Guesstimates on June 29, 2016

September S&P E-mini Futures: Late yesterday the ES blew through 2022 resistance. It is now trading just below strong resistance in the 2047-51 zone. My best guess here is that the market will drop 13-15 points from this zone and then head still higher to 2064-68 resistance. Should this last resistance zone fail I will conclude that the Brexit drop is over and that the market is headed above last year’s top at 2134.

QQQ:  The 112 level is resistance and support is at 104.

TNX (ten year note yield): A drop back to the 2012 low at 1.39% looks very likely.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro turned downward without moving above last year’s 1.17 top and I still think that the ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par.

Dollar-Yen: A bear market is underway.  Last night the yen traded down to 99.00. A rally to 104-06 is likely. Next downside target is 95.

August Crude: Crude is in a bull market. Next upside target is 55. Support is at 45.

August Gold:  A bull market is underway in gold. The upside target at 1365 has been reached. Support is now at 1250. Next upside target is 1420.

July Silver: Resistance at 18.00 has been reached. Support is at 16.00 and next upside target is 20.00.

Google: Support is 675.

Apple:  I still think the bull market in APPL is intact. However should AAPL start spending time below 90 I think continuation down to 70 will become likely.  

Facebook: Upside target is 125-127. Meantime support is at 110.

Twitter: Twitter should drop to 10. Resistance is at 16.25.

Alibaba: Now headed back to 86.

Visa: Support is at 70. Upside target is 90-95.

Guesstimates on June 28, 2016

September S&P E-mini Futures: The rally from yesterday’s low will probably continue to 2022 or so. From there another drop of at least 70 points is likely. I don’t think the drop from last Thursday’s 2119.50 top has lasted long enough to rebuild the wall of worry so it probably has quite a bit further to go.

QQQ:  The 112 level is resistance and support is at 104.

TNX (ten year note yield): A drop back to the 2012 low at 1.39% looks very likely.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro turned downward without moving above last year’s 1.17 top and I still think that the ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par.

Dollar-Yen: A bear market is underway.  Last night the yen traded down to 99.00. A rally to 104-06 is likely. Next downside target is 95.

August Crude: Crude is in a bull market. Next upside target is 55. Support is at 45.

August Gold:  A new bull market has begun in gold. The upside target at 1365 has been reached. Support is now at 1250. Next upside target is 1420.

July Silver: Resistance at 18.00 has been reached. Support is at 16.00 and next upside target is 20.00.

Google: Support is 675.

Apple:  I still think the bull market in APPL is intact. However should AAPL start spending time below 90 I think continuation down to 70 will become likely.  

Facebook: Upside target is 125-127. Meantime support is at 110.

Twitter: Twitter should drop to 10. Resistance is at 16.25.

Alibaba: Now headed back to 86.

Visa: Support is at 70. Upside target is 90-95.