Monday, June 27, 2016

Guesstimates on June 27, 2016

September S&P E-mini Futures: Support today is at 1997. Resistance above the market is at 2022. My guess is that the ES will drop to 1968 or so before staging another big rally. I don’t think the drop from last Thursday’s 2119.50 has lasted long enough to rebuild the wall of worry which would mean that 1968 will probably not be the end of the entire correction. But Brexit has created a very unusual situation so the usual yardsticks I use may not work here
QQQ:  The 112 level is resistance and support is at 104.
TNX (ten year note yield): A drop back to the 2012 low at 1.39% looks very likely.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro turned downward without moving above last year’s 1.17 top and I still think that the ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par.
Dollar-Yen: A bear market is underway.  Last night the yen traded down to 99.00. A rally to 104-06 is likely. Next downside target is 95.
August Crude: Crude is in a bull market. Next upside target is 55. Support is at 45.
August Gold:  A new bull market has begun in gold. The upside target at 1365 was reached last night. Support is now at 1250. Next upside target is 1420.
July Silver: Resistance at 18.00 was reached last night. Support is at 16.00 and next upside target is 20.00.
Google: Support is 675.
Apple:  I still think the bull market in APPL is intact. However should AAPL start spending time below 90 I think continuation down to 70 will become likely.  
Facebook: Resistance at 120 has been reached but FB has also staged an upside breakout from a trading range so I think continuation up to 125-127 is likely. Meantime support is at 110.
Twitter: Twitter should drop to 10. Resistance is at 16.25.
Alibaba: Now headed back to 86.
Visa: Support is at 70. Upside target is 90-95.

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