Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Guesstimates on June 15, 2016

September S&P E-mini Futures: Resistance above the market is at 2076 and again at 2083. It looks like the ES is on its way to 2013 or below. This decline will rebuild the wall of worry and, once it is complete, will allow the market to climb up above last year’s top.
QQQ:  The 112 level is resistance and support is at 104.
TNX (ten year note yield): I now think we may not have seen the low 10 year yield for the year given the bearish trend in stock prices. A drop back to the 2012 low at 1.39% looks very likely.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro turned downward without moving above last year’s 1.17 top and I still think that the ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par.
Dollar-Yen: A bear market is underway.  Resistance is 111-113.
July Crude: Crude is in a bull market. Next upside target is 55. Support is at 45.
August Gold:  A new bull market has begun in gold. The next upside target is 1315. Support is 1205.
July Silver: I think the bear market in silver is over. Resistance now is at 18.00.
Google: Support is 675.
Apple:  I still think the bull market in APPL is intact. However should AAPL start spending time below 90 I think continuation down to 70 will become likely.  
Facebook: Resistance at 120 has been reached but FB has also staged an upside breakout from a trading range so I think continuation up to 125-127 is likely.
Twitter: Twitter should drop to 10.
Alibaba: Now headed back to 86.
Visa: Support is at 70. Upside target is 90-95.

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