Friday, June 10, 2016

Guesstimates on June 10, 2016

September S&P E-mini Futures: Volume moves into the September 2016 contract today. Overnight the ES staged a downside breakout from its trading range of the past three days. It is now probably headed for the June 3 low at 2074. If this latter support fails a much bigger drop of at least 100 points or so will be underway. Trader sentiment remains very bullish and I think the market must rebuild its wall of worry before a move above last year’s high at 2134 materializes.
QQQ:  The 112 level is resistance but the Q’s are headed eventually to 120. Support now is at 104.
TNX (ten year note yield): We probably have seen the low 10 year yield for the year. I think that the 10 year yield will reach 3.00% during the next 12 months.  
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro turned downward without moving above last year’s 1.17 top and I still think that the ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par.
Dollar-Yen: A bear market is underway.  Resistance is 111-113.
July Crude: Crude is in a bull market. Next upside target is 55. Support is at 43.
August Gold:  A new bull market has begun in gold. The next upside target is 1315. Support is 1205.
July Silver: I think the bear market in silver is over. Resistance now is at 18.00.
Google: Support is 675.
Apple:  I still think the bull market in APPL is intact. However should AAPL start spending time below 90 I think continuation down to 70 will become likely.  
Facebook: Resistance at 120 has been reached but FB has also staged an upside breakout from a trading range so I think continuation up to 125-127 is likely.
Twitter: Twitter should drop to 10.
Alibaba: Now headed back to 86.
Visa: Support is at 70. Upside target is 90-95.

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