Monday, June 06, 2016

Guesstimates on June 6, 2016

June S&P E-mini Futures: Support today is at 2097 and the ES is likely to be trading in the 2110-15 zone today or tomorrow. However the 2105-10 resistance zone is a strong one and trader sentiment as measured by the put-call numbers is now more bullish than at any time during the past 14 months. The market needs to rebuild the wall of worry before it can move above last year’s top at 2134 and this would require a drop of something like 100 points.
QQQ:  The 112 level is resistance but the Q’s are headed eventually to 120. Support now is at 104.
TNX (ten year note yield): We probably have seen the low 10 year yield for the year. I think that the 10 year yield will reach 3.00% during the next 12 months.  
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro turned downward without moving above last year’s 1.17 top and I still think that the ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par.
Dollar-Yen: A bear market is underway.  Resistance is 111-113.
July Crude: Crude is in a bull market. Next upside target is 55. Support is at 43.
August Gold:  A new bull market has begun in gold. The next upside target is 1315. Support is 1205.
July Silver: I think the bear market in silver is over. Resistance now is at 18.00.
Google: Support is 675.
Apple:  I still think the bull market in APPL is intact. However should AAPL start spending time below 90 I think continuation down to 70 will become likely.  
Facebook: Resistance at 120 has been reached but FB has also staged an upside breakout from a trading range so I think continuation up to 125-127 is likely.
Twitter: Twitter should drop to 10.
Alibaba: Now headed back to 86.
Visa: Support is at 70. Upside target is 90-95.

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