Friday, February 10, 2006

Guesstimates on February 10 , 8:50 am ET

March S&P Futures:  I am expecting a higher low near 1265 support and then a resumption of the move up to 1320. The market should reach the 1350 level in a couple of months.  

March Bonds: Resistance is at 113-08 and the next downside target is at 111-16.  I think the market is on its way into the 107-108 zone.

March 10 Year Notes: Resistance is still at 108-18 while the next support level beneath the market is at 107-10. I think notes will reach 104 or so in a few months.

Cash Eurocurrency: The market has recovered above the 119.50 level but will not go higher than 120.60.  The next downside target is117.60. A drop to 113 and below is underway.    

March Crude: Support is at 62.40 but the market will rally at most a dollar or two from there. Next downside target is at 59.70. Crude is headed for 55.00.

April Gold: I think a drop of $100 has begun. Resistance today is at 570. First minor support on the way down is at 526.

March Silver: I think a drop of $2.00 has started. Resistance today is at 966. Next short term support is at 905.

Google: I don’t think the bull market is over and I expect GOOG to hold support near 355 and then head higher. Once GOOG leaps over resistance at 405 it will be headed for the next upside target at 495.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

In light of the negative Barrons cover story on GOOG, has your opinion on the stock changed?

Anonymous said...

Amplifying on the previous person's comment, I would say that the key line in the Barrons story is: "and the vulnerability to Google's advertising franchise from "click fraud" fake ad transactions".

The basic problem is that google owns blogspot. A group cataloging the various "splogs" or clickfarm blogs found that 35,000 or the 50,000 splogs they found resided on blogspot.

This should give goog investors pause. Maybe now that the stock has broken they can come clean and later get back up on that horse.

Although in the big picture, loss of confidence in GOOG should accelerate the rotation from real-estate and new-new-economy into precious metals. Where else is that money gonna go? Why else would metals be confounding the technical analysts so much recently? Silver might never look back at 8 in our lifetime.