Thursday, March 29, 2007

Guesstimates on March 29, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: The Spiders are headed for the 151-53 range over the next few months. Support today is again at 141.60. The corresponding numbers for the June futures are 1510-30 with support at 1425.

QQQQ: The Q’s are on the way into the 47-48 range. Support stands at 43.54.

TLT - June Bonds
: TLT is headed up into the 94-95 range. The bonds have dropped a little below 111-24 but the notes are holding support. For this reason I want to give the bonds a little leeway and am still looking for a rally to 114-24. Over the next few months the bonds are headed for 120.

June 10 Year Notes
: The notes made their low on January 26 and are now headed for 111. Short term support is at 108-08 and the next upside target is 109-18.

Euro-US Dollar: I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.

Dollar-Yen: The 115.14 low on March 5 will hold and that the market is now headed for 123. Meantime the 118.30 level is resistance. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

OIH - USO - May Crude
: I think OIH will reach 151-53 before resuming its longer term drop. USO will rally too but only to 52 or so. May crude has resistance today at 66.00. I still think the next big move will be downward to 55.00 or so.

GLD - April Gold
: I think that both GLD and April gold have begun an extended decline that will carry gold well below 600. Resistance in the futures is still at 665.

May Silver: Silver has resistance today at 1365 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.

Google
: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started.

2 comments:

Will Rahal said...

Carl, I think that during today, Thursday, long positions should be established. I am expecting a multi-day rally, so good buys at support levels (published previously.)

Probability (3/29) for the SP500 being UP = .63 So, for Thursday we have a POSITIVE bias for the Market.

However, a break below SP-futures 1419 will negate this positive bias and would be an ominous sign.

Again, I hope this is of use and\or interest. Thanks for reading!

Anonymous said...

43.54 is broken, firmly.

Will update guesstimate?