Tuesday, February 01, 2011

Guesstimates on February 1

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1280-1291. The market is heading for 1300 or above. While I don't expect it a daily close below 1270.50 would have more bearish implications and suggest a move down to the 50 day moving average will develop first. In any case by the end of April this market will have traded at 1350.

QQQQ: I think the market will rally to 58.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will soon begin a move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

March Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00. The 91.50 level is strong resistance because it is the midpoint of the 2008 drop from 147.80 to 35.00.

GLD – April Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1495 is the next upside target. Support is at 1315.

SLV - March Silver: The upside target at 31.00 has been reached but there is still no sign of a top. Next upside target is 36.00. Support is at 25.50.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Has reached the 350 target. Next upside target is 375. Support is at 310.


MKS said...


I find it very interesting that over the last month, 90% of time the market has gone OVER your daily range!
This POMO stuff is really throwing a spanner in the predictions of even the greats like you!

dcatlowpj said...

That's for sure. There is no way to determine a top, or even turning points. I read recently that so long as the liquidity continues, QA and so on, then there is NO place to put those assets in play but in equities, and options. If people were handing me cash to invest, you can bet your bippie, as Carson used to say, that I would be in equities big time with hedges (cheap puts).

Carl, I have to hand it to you that you are putting some numbers out there to look at and use by us traders...I would now look to your HOD projection as support and go long again if that support breaks by a tick to 6 ticks and holds.

dcatlowpj said...

Gap fills are another clue, eh Carl? I see un-filled gaps, or reluctant fills, and this tells me that no one is looking back...the pullback on Friday shook out some longs and I am guessing that many shorts played it. I did. But, to hold shorts now is not all that smart. I will BUY some puts when we top up...but, where is that top now? We could easily see the normalities, such as the Feb weakness into March seasonal strength be turned on their heads.