Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Guesstimates on February 16, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1327-1337. Next upside target is 1340. By the end of April this market will have traded at 1380.

QQQ: The 58.50 target has nearly been reached. Support is at 56.75. Next upside target is 60.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

March Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00. The 91.50 level is strong resistance because it is the midpoint of the 2008 drop from 147.80 to 35.00.

GLD – April Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1495 is the next upside target. Support is at 1315.

SLV - March Silver: The upside target at 31.00 has been reached but there is still no sign of a top. Next upside target is 36.00. Support is at 25.50.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Has reached the 350 target. Next upside target is 375. Support is at 310.


Win said...

Carl - Please feel free to post this elsewhere as a testimonial:

I think a lot of readers assume that Carl Futia Realtime is a blog only for day traders of the e-minis. While Carl only posts his e-mini ST trades, he also posts his views on where he thinks the SP, bonds, rates, and the dollar are going, both short-term and long-term. Best of all he shows us how he arrives at those views. I was a member and I think it was an invaluable learning experience. (I am only not a member now because I found that I was becoming too dependent on Carl's thinking and I wanted to rely more on my own analysis. This may be a temporary hiatus.)

I_Got_Prechterized said...


I know you pride yourself on being a contrarian trader. Although the bullish bias for the last year or so has been contrarian, isn't arguable that the contra trade now is to be a bear? bullishness levels are approaching extreme levels especially among money managers. Just interested in your take.

hooloo1957 said...

carl, let me answer that last question. sentiment and indicators don't mean ---- compared to the price action. thank you.