Spiders - September S&P Futures: Contrary to my expectation the S&P’s and Spiders made new reaction lows late yesterday. I don’t think this downside breakout is the start of a significant drop. Instead I expect the S&P’s to hold support near 1420 and the Spiders to hold near 141.70. From there I expect both markets to rally back to the top of the current trading range which is the 1510 level in the S&P’s. That will be only the first phase of a move to new bull market highs.
QQQQ: The Q’s should hold support near 46.20 and then head back to the high of their trading range at 49.00. Later this year the Q’s will go much higher than that.
TLT - September Bonds: I think an extended drop all the way down to 103 has started. The 109-28 level is resistance and the next short term support is at 108-00. TLT shows strong resistance near 87.50 and should soon begin a drop to 80-81.
September 10 Year Notes: The notes have strong resistance at 107-24 and have begun a drop to 102 or so.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro closed well below 136.00 in New York yesterday. I think this means that the market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that. Short term support stands near 133.00..
Dollar-Yen: The yen broke well below 117.50 this morning. I think there is an excellent chance that 116.00 will hold and that the next big move will carry the market up to 130.
XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: It looks like crude oil has started a big move downward. The 66.00 level is the initial target but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.80 level looks like the ceiling for USO.
GLD - December Gold: I will stick with my 705 upside target for the futures unless gold shows weakness below the 660 level. In any case the next 100 dollar move should be down. I think GLD will drop below 60 on its way to much lower levels. Resistance in GLD is 68.50.
SLV - September Silver: Silver broke below 1250 early this morning. A close below there will convince me that a big drop to below 1000 has started. SLV will drop below 100 at the same time.
Google: I think the market will hold support near 497. Next upside target is 580-85. Google will trade above the 600 level later this year.
10 comments:
I get the belief in a rebound today.
But, how can you be so sure we have seen the low's? How do you know the lows are not 5%, 10%, or 15% lower?
Revising the numbers downwards every other day is not financial forecasting. The quant fund models have not worked in the melt down. SNP temporary support is 1387-90.
Hi Carl:
can you show us some P&F charts please? Maybe with support resistance and target levels?
Your work is greatly appreciated.
Alan Geespan
Carl
Where are you going to cut and adimit your wrong? At what point?
Today is another good example to be contrarian.... buy this market and sell by friday.... we will squeeze those shorts to heaven.
support will hold just as Carl did predict. This market is going a lot higher, I mean another 2000 points.
As usual everybody has missed out and is chasing prices higher.
Looks like GS and the financial sector are finally taking a stand. I guess the news about Buffett buying into BAC helps. Also, looks like the Yen's backing off. Perhaps this is it ... probably wishful thinking, but perhaps.
Take the market as it is! not as what it should be or what it will be or what you expect it to be.
If some readers (nobody invited you to this blog)don't agree with carl they should stop reading this blog and start their own blog (if they have that knowledge and ability)instead of spitting venom.
In times of crisis people gets fired up but we should keep our level of decency which is the indicator of our upbringing,family values and character.
More supports broken today.. Dow broka 13000 and S&P broke 1410..
Hi Carl
As the saying goes "Bulls survive, bears survive but greedy pigs die"
Thanks Carl for all the time and effort you have put into this site. You deserve an award!!
No1 Fan
Kris, London
P.S How is your new hip? Hope you are doing well
Post a Comment