Friday, August 24, 2007

Guesstimates on August 24, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: I think the S&P’s will rally into the 1500-10 zone before a significant swing downward develops. Meantime support is at 1450. I do think the market will drop into the 1400-25 zone before it moves to new bull market highs. Resistance in the Spiders is 150-151 and support is 145.

QQQQ: Short term upside target is 49.00. Support is at 46.50. Later this year the Q’s will go to new bull market highs.

TLT - September Bonds
: I now think the bonds have a shot at 111-28 before a drop to 103 can start. TLT will probably rally to 89.00 but then will begin a drop to 80-81.

September 10 Year Notes: I still think the notes have a shot at 109-28 before they begin a drop to 102 or so.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market stands at 136.60. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that..

Dollar-Yen: I no longer think the yen will drop below it 111.57 low. Resistance is at 117.20 and the next break should hold above the 112.00 level. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.

XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: The 66.00 level is the initial target for this downswing in crude but I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 51.00 level looks like support in USO.

GLD - December Gold: I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.

SLV - September Silver: Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV should drop below 90.

Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher will begin soon.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Carl,

What would it take for you to predict a break in the up trend of your S&P point and figure chart? Or what does it take in general for you to predict a break in the trend up or down?

Turning points are always difficult for anyone to predict. I do not understand what it would take using your methodology to change course.

Which is not to say you are wrong this time.