Here are daily charts of several financial, homebuilding, and real estate indices. As you can see the market has been in free fall since February of 2007. I think it is about to reverse course at least for a few months. I see support in XHB (the S&P Homebuilder index spiders) at 22.50, support in HGX (the Philadelphia options exchange housing index) at 155, support in IYR (the Dow Jones realestate index) at 65, and suppport in XLF (the financial sector spiders) at 31.The subsequent rally will probably retrace about 1/3 of the drop from the February highs at a minimum.
5 comments:
Carl, I think we are headed for much lower lows ...
#1 - Sub-Prime Mortgages defaults are causing Mortgage Lenders to go bankrupt.
#2 - Carry Trade is Unwinding - Massive selling to raise cash to pay back borrowed Yen.
#3 - Liquidity Shortage in the banking industry is causing a lending shortage to Businesses and people even with a good credit rating.
#4 - Quant Hedge funds are blowing up.
#5 - Anybody invested in funds that contain Sub-Prime Mortgages do not know the real value, if any.
If the banking screeches to a halt then the economy screeches to a halt then earnings screech to a halt which means more sell-off in the market.
Fairly disgusting market lately. Horrible internals beget more horrible internals, etc. The markets are forcing you to revise down your targets and pretty much refusing to find a bid. Q's and ES looking way up at your support numbers here.
You're about he most useless trader I have seen Carl.
Hi there
always interesting reading from stuff.
Going back to your point & figure chart, we have now broken the trendline, but a classic pattern in p&f is for price to reverse back to the trend line i.e. 3 boxes, which means we are going back to 1.400. Still I think there is bullishness in this market in that spx has still not managed to produce five black candlesticks in a row. Until that happens this just seems like the usual pay day for da boyz, who were able to short last wednesday and collect around 130 points today as their pay.
Keep up the good work!
Kind regards from Denmark ;-
Carl way to go calling the market - NOt only were you on with the post lately - People need to remeber this market is here to scare the average joe out of the market. Take a look at the S$P Banking Index $BIX. If the markets are falling off the face of the earth then why are putting in higher lows on the daily. Chew on that one folks for those who don't understand how technical analysis works. Or better yet the market is all about supply and demand. Why were the brokers being bought today?? Pull up a weekly chart of $XBD and you will see that even the most novice trader would see all the reference points for the demand area. Don't get your nose to close to the screen - step back and get a bigger picture of whats happening
Post a Comment