Here are hourly charts of the S&P futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. I last commented on these markets here. I have drawn short term support levels at 1450 in the futures and 145 in the Spiders. As long as these levels hold I shall expect the futures to move up into the 1500-10 range and the Spiders to 150-151. The Q's should reach 49.00 during the same time frame.
After this rally from the August 16 lows is complete I think we shall see a break of 75 points or so in the futures and 7.50 points in the Spiders. The drop will probably be pretty scary and be accompanied by more fear mongering in the media. But I expect this upcoming reaction to stop above the August 16 lows.
The subsequent rally will then carry these markets to new bull market highs.
2 comments:
Carl,
Not to be difficult, but have you ever calculated your accuracy rate on predictions. No body can be 100%
Do you have a relative performance for your S&P projections?
Personally I think we end up at new lows soon, but I am not sure it will be the first retest.
I do think the bull market will resume at the end of this year or possibly next year.
I think we are due for a bigger reaction than you and I think the new Fed leadership not being as eager to lower rates supports my view. Thus, I think this new Fed perspective explains a break in support.
"POTENTIAL" h&s (and island) top on hourly index charts. IF Fri morning's reports on durable goods & new home sales tomorrow morning precipitate a gap open to the downside, h&s will come into play. IMO, i don't think they'll lead very far down if triggered.
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