Here is a daily chart of the cash S&P 500. I last commented on this market here.I think the January 22 low around 1270 in cash and 1256 in the e-mini March futures will hold. Today the market has traded visibly aobve the January 9 low at 1378 and this means the market will probably get pretty close to the January 10 high at 1429 before a significant reaction sets it. The initial box for the current rally is 100 points wide and the 1/2 point of the second box is at 1420. This reinforces the significance of the 1420-30 resistance zone.
I think that we shall see this average trade above the 1600 level in the next 3 or 4 months. But before this happens I also expect to see at least one break of 100 or so S&P points. If that break starts from the 1420-30 zone then it would find support near the 1/2 point of the first box at 1320.
6 comments:
Do you think that when the S&P moves to/above 1600 this will be the "blowoff" top sucking the longs back in? Are the point and figure charts still pointing to a possible move to above 1700 S&P? Great work. Don't let the annoying naysayers deter your obvious gifts.
Hi Carl,
Just noticed the humptydumpty... is it supposedly Bernanke? LOL
I think that he is a very good one to handle the ARM crisis.
btw, one of my nieces is a grad of Yale with English, now a lawyer working for one of the Top international law firms in NYC after her law school. Another niece went to Berkeley for a couple of years after her studies in Columbia; now, she is a M.D.
Have a nice weekend
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Thankfully, even though GOOG earning report was disappointing, SPX and DOW closed above 20 dma, aka holy grail moving average, which is encouraging. Due to the recent volatility, it is harder to predict what markets will do next, I think that it is lucky to see that someone handled market psychology and sentiment, I might add, "very well", even though it is not easy, but harder to deal with markets. Even though I noted speculative scenarios about ARM crisis which could be intentional or unintentional, if someone will be going to jail, as FBI is investigating, then, it must not be intentional, but the easy credit qualifying process was giving a chance to many while some have chosen a financial responsibility above their level. Again, I am glad that greenspan is out, not dealing with the problem as I think that we have a better chief than him. Of course that's my opinion.
Carl,
In the short run I think your predictions look good, but I still think this is a bear market rally.
You use to quote spy in addition to futures. Is it difficult for you to quote both?
I think additional debt down grades of downgrades on the bond insurers are going to cause your predictions to falter. I know the fed will lower a lot (probably more than expected), but when people stop paying their debts it is going to destroy a lot of wealth. I think this is where we disagree the most.
Hi Carl,
what's your update on China and HSI?
carl
joe here , that chart you posted
may end up to be dead on accurate
there is one concern i have though
that is feb 5th to feb 19th 21st
the early march low in my work though fits . problem noted is based on solar eclipse feb 7th
which if a low might give mkt a boost in feb 19th 21st then the lunar eclipse would mini crash the mkt for roughly 14 trade days .
good work
hopefully both our work which is now in agreement will prove correct .
joe
Huge bullish astrocluster into Feb 4 just gave the largest rally in 5 years.
Next large bullish astrocluster is March 10 then another in May.
July 2008 Mars Saturn conjunction event should top off the whole rally before crash into mega bearish astro clusters of 2009.
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