Monday, February 04, 2008

Guessimtates on February 4, 8:40 am ET

piders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I now think the futures will make it into the 1420-1430 zone before a break of 60 points or more begins. In any case I think the January 22 low is going to hold on any test and that in three or four months the average will be above the 1600 level.

QQQ: I think the Q’s are headed for 47.50.

TLT - March Bonds: Support is at 118-00 but weakness below there will mean that the market has started and extended drop. Meantime I think the bonds still have a shot at the 2003 top of 123-03. TLT has nearly reached its 98.50 target.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes should encounter strong resistance at 120. Weakness below 115-08 will mean that the trend has turned downward.

Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.

Dollar-Yen: I think the market is establishing an important low but another drop down into the 104-105 zone is likely before a sustained rally can begin.

XLE - OIH - USO – March Crude: Resistance stands at 95.00. I think that crude is headed for 75.00 and eventually much lower than that. During that time USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60.

GLD - April Gold: Switching to the April contract. I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 885 level in the April contract too.

SLV - March Silver: I am raising my silver target to 1900-2000 to keep it in line with the gold target of 1000. Support still stands at 1500.

Google: Google is at 515 support and I think a move to new bull market highs will start from here.

3 comments:

Will Rahal said...

Carl,
There are some scary implications if the Service Sector deteriorates.
It employs more than 82% of our labor force.
See "Employment:Goods-Producing vs. Services"

Anonymous said...

How about that Superbowl ad of a 10 month +/- old baby trading stocks?

Reminds me of the 2000 top which had ads of teenagers trading to buy helicopters and yachts.

Speculative top getting closer, may see alot more of these teen/baby trading ads.

Anonymous said...

GOOG broke down that 515 support. Okay what now? 480 next support? Maybe 450?