Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: I got stopped out of my position late yesterday at 1343. The fact that the market dropped almost 10 points below the breakout level at 1348.50 means that it has established a new trading range of 1340-63 and I think that it will visit the low end of this range again before attempting to move higher. In any case a move to 1430 is underway. The January 22 low is going to hold and that in three or four months the average will be above the 1600 level.
QQQ: It’s starting to look like the Q’s are putting in a higher low. Strength above 44.50 would confirm this and mean that a move up to 47.50 is underway.
TLT - March Bonds: The bonds are headed down to 112 or so. Today resistance is at 119-12. I think TLT will drop to 88.
March 10 Year Notes: The notes are still holding support but a break below 115-20 will mean that a drop to 112 is underway.
Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the market is headed for 151 or so.
Dollar-Yen: I think the market is establishing an important low but another drop down into the 104-105 zone is likely before a sustained rally can begin.
XLE - OIH - USO – March Crude: The market has rallied close to 95.00 resistance but I think it will soon turn and drop below 85.00. The next support level is 75.00. USO should drop to 56, OIH to 140 and XLE to 60 over the coming months.
GLD - April Gold: I think gold futures are now headed for 1000. Support is at the 885 level in the April contract. Any weakness below 880 will mean that a drop to at least 750 has begun.
SLV - March Silver: I am raising my silver target to 1900-2000 to keep it in line with the gold target of 1000. Support still stands at 1500.
Google: Google took a peek above 525 yesterday but couldn’t hold its gains. Any strength above 525 will mean that Google is has begun another bull market advance. I still think that GOOG will traded above the 750 level during the next few months.
4 comments:
Carl:
Will you comment on Terry Laundry's work (your take on his view)?
You link to his site (so I assume that you respect what he does), so I would be interested to hear your take on T Theory generally, but specifically Terry's belief that the lows will not hold and that the downtrend shall continue.
Thank you in advance.
Hi Carl,
I'm trying to get my feet wet with Box Theory, and I like the way it aids visualizing future movement. Looking at the cash S&P, if the market climbs as expected, do you switch at some point to using the larger move of 126 points from 1270 to 1396 as your box height, instead of the 100-point boxes? Or do you draw both sizes and evaluate the results you are getting?
hey carl
something to think of ,
in my work i watch timing over price which at times can be painful , yet im going to show
something consistant i just noticed
all based on monthly closes
i realise the mkt can make print highs or lows yet this is something to think of
june 1994 low
march 1997 low
dec 1999 high ( closing high )
sept 2002 ( closing low )
june 2005 low
march 2008 low
jan 2011 high ???
pretty consistant monthly 33 month
cycle . taking this one step further which may turn out to be a mistake yet : using a log chart from the closing 1994 low and running a trendline through the 2002 low the trendline crosses through march 2008 at a price of 12422 plus minus obviously
my own work calls this bounce
the initial move up which has yet to put in 5 waves up which is due into feb 19 21st for a short term swing high and then there is a short term bear cycle which hits and runs into march 6th . and yet
if the dow can manage to close right here by the end of march it would be consistant with the 33 month cycle oif the past 14 years
the next 33 month cycle is jan 2011
and my own work calls for june 2010
as a top so these 33 month cycles should be considered if i am proven correct .
bottom to bottom to top ( 6/94 3/97
dec/99 )
bottom to bottom to top again ??
june 2005 march 2008 jan 2011 ?
joe
You nailed it! Nuff said
Post a Comment