Friday, January 23, 2009

Guesstimates on January 23, 2009

March S&P  E-mini Futures:  The e-minis broke below yesterday’s low early this morning and thus canceled the implication of yesterday’s demand shock. I don’t have any conviction about the direction of the next move from 803, the latest print I see. I do think that the 785-90 zone is support beneath the market. I also plan to follow any high volume rally above 815.

QQQ: Support below the market is at 26.50. Strength above 30.00 will mean that the Q’s are headed for 34.00. 

March Bonds: The short term trend has carried the bonds below 130 and this market will probably continue lower to 126-27.  

March 10 Year Notes: The short term trend has turned downward and should carry the notes to 120. .  

Euro-US Dollar: The euro will probably continue down to 127.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.50 level will hold and that a rally to 100.00 is underway. 

March Crude: I think March crude will also drop down into the 30-35 zone. After that a rally to the 50.00 level should develop.

GLD - February Gold: The 885 level is still resistance and the market should resume its move down into the 550-600 range. 

SLV - March Silver: I still think this is a bear market.  Resistance above the market is at 1165. Next downside target is 650.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

These markets are dead. I plan to short the dow all the way down to 6500 when it hits 8020 again.

Anonymous said...

thanks for the hard work Carl !!!

Anonymous said...

Carl
These short covering rallies are the heavy volume shocks you've mentioned. There's been no follow through higher due to the changes in in the compositions of traditional hedge fund/daytraders. Now we have the higher volume of trades lasting shorter periods of time.
Simply put; this markets been tough for everyone who isnt a directional short position trader.

Keep up the good work,

Brent

Anonymous said...

Precious metals are going up big time. Gold will see $1200 before $600.

You are forecasting $6.50 for silver?

The DOW will be at 1000 if either of your gold or silver forecasts come true due to monster deflation.