Thursday, January 29, 2009

Locating Support

Here is a 30 minute bar chart of the last two week's e-mini day sessions. The market has dropped from yesterday's 876 high but as far as I can see the up trend which started from the January 20 low is still intact. The blue and green rectangles delimit the two reactions within this trend which have occurred thus far. Drawing rectangles of the same height from 876 give support projections of 851 and 838. The 851 level is also a bit above the breakout level (green dotted line) while the 838 level is the midpoint of the last two-day trading range prior to yesterday's breakout. This is even stronger support.

I am guessing that the market will hold 851 support - this is the most bullish outcome. A drop to 838 at this juncture would probably mean that the market will continue down at least to 825.

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