Here are 30 minute and 5 minute bar charts of recent e-mini trading during the day sessions. Today's early rally developed volume that failed to match the volume of previous down bars at the corresponding time of day recently. Moreover, the rally has now been completely retraced. Still no sign of any demand shock so the short term trend remains downward.I got short near the open anticipating a drop back to yesterday's low, but instead the market rallied to 820 on relatively high volume. I got out since it seems to me that this market could easily rally to 825 or so without disturbing the downtrend's rhythm.
I now suspect that yesterday's close (green dotted line) will be support today and a rally to 825 or so may well start from there. But at the moment this is just guesswork. In any case the worst I think we'll see today on the downside is 785-90.
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