Thursday, January 22, 2009

No buyers, but no aggressive sellers either

Here is an updated 5 minute bar chart showing day session trading over the past two days. Earlier today I said that I would follow selling below 816 if it occurred on increasing volume. In the event I did not see the kind of persistent increase in volume that would indicate aggressive selling " at any price". Instead every break was followed immediately by a rally and the volume stayed quite modest as compared, for example, with yesterday's early break.

Another reason why I don't think that the mid-day weakness today represents a supply shock is that demand or supply shocks usually take place during the first hour or two of trading or during the last hour or two unless there is some surprising news in the middle of the day.

For these reasons I don't think there is enough evidence to justify a definite view about the direction market's short term trend. I'll let you know when this changes.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

which land are you from? using words like demand and supply shock---right now there is only FEAR--of banks getting nationalized..till the time the terms of the second TARP is clear there can NEVER be a demand shock--its more like a demand TRAP