Friday, March 06, 2009

Guesstimates on March 6, 2009

March S&P  E-mini Futures: The jobs number came in as expected this morning, but the previous two months job losses turned out to be bigger than originally reported. So far the market has held its ground in the face of this moderately negative surprise – bullish action, I think.  In any even I believe that we shall see a 24 hour range of 30-35 points today. And I still expect to see the low of this range near 665. I believe this market is stabilizing after a 23% drop in four weeks. It would take a high volume move above the 725 level to indicate that a move to 800 and above is underway.

QQQ: The 26.00 level is now support and from there I think the Q’s will start a move to 35.00.  

June Bonds: I think the long term trend in the bond market is now definitely downward. Next downside target is 117.  

June 10 Year Notes: I think a bear market in the notes is underway. Next downside target is 118.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro is headed down to 122.50.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has nearly reached the 100.00 level. There is as yet no indication that the move up from 87.00 is over, so I now estimate that the yen will reach 104.00 before a substantial reaction begins.   

April Crude: The 30-35 zone is long term support. I think the market will start stabilizing. The next big move should be a rally to 50.

GLD – April Gold: Gold shows support in the 900-10 zone and should soon resume its move to 1100.

SLV - May Silver: I now think silver is headed for 1750. Support is at 1240.  

Google: I think that its drop from 747 is over. 

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