Here is a five minute bar chart of today's e-mini day session. I think we have seen today's high at 820 and that the market is now headed down to the lower end of my range estimate at 797-801. The purple dotted line at 797 represents midpoint support based on yesterday's early afternoon reaction, while the 801 level is the midpoint of yesterday's day session trading range.My guess is that the market will put in a 25-30 point trading range tomorrow with its low pretty close to whatever low we establish today.
7 comments:
Hi Carl
im curious do you run a progression of lindsay top to top counts . along with low to high counts ?? also last queation if you can touch on this some time .
the 12 year 8 month time frame
from low to high count he talks about . im curious if that will become important in a couple years
counting forward from march 2000
when the bulk of the stock market made its highs .that would be roughly november 2012 . this is my year for taking on a new theory so lindsay and his timing appears to be it . lastly im curious and ill work through this but im begining to think the basic decline began in may 2008 and that the july 2007 to may 2008 was nothing more then a large top formation . his work is not simple yet not all that complicated either , i figure once i work through this ill be better able to understand my real question in regards to the count from the mid section i brought up near the lows those counts were to accurate to ignore even if on a short term 13 minute chart ,
if you look at SDS on a 60 minute chart you can see a well defined 3 peaks domed house pattern was or is now very close to completed
it would have begun on jan 6th 2009point 10 in my count is the feb 9 low whic coresponds to a stock mkt peak since this is an inverse etf
something to think about is all
joe
Another good logical call. Thanks Carl!
You da man - hit the nail on the head! Saw this post, but didn't think there would be such a big plunge with so little time left, so closed out my short position early, esp. since I had noticed that the there's a tendency for a slight uptick at the close, but you called it right again. Oh well, better safe than sorry.
here is another reason i bring up the top to top counts , admittedly im new at this sort of thing yet not new in regards to timing this is just new theroy for me to dig through . it appears to me that lindsays top to top counts overlap
the ones that do tend to give some clues as an example
jan 22 2008 plus 107 targets may 8th 2008 . there was a small dip on may 9th 2008 which i began a new top to top count which targets aug 24th 2008 there is a small pop to the upside on aug 26th so i started a new top to top count which targets dec 11 2008 .there was another small poke to the upside begining dec 12 2008 and counting forward 107 calander days targets march 29 2009 , this is sunday . using my own work i have the 27th from a different interpretation . lastly using an elliott wave count i see 5 waves up so a .382 time retracement also brings towards march 27th . so 3 different aprroaches calls friday to monday an important turn .
there was another low point on nov 20 2008 counting 107 calander days forward called for a potential high march 7th 2009 this was the low now we are counting forward from dec 12 2008 higher low which targets march 29 . this 2 day window as far as im concerned is one of the most important turn windows this year . lastly since march 7th was the end of a top to top count and we saw a low on close march 9th i count forward 107 calander days and i get june 24 2009 , this date surranounds my other work for some kind of cyclical high . point being is simple im finding lindsays work blending with my own . and this is just one sample , carl you under stand the multples lindsay went through im just begining on this but it is very very very good work
good luck
joe
Hello Carl- Have enjoyed all your work over the years- Just was looking this date range near the equinox being not only 529 cal days or Sq of 23 from the 10/07 highs, but also at 820-2-S&P at 754 points down from the highs or 27.50 Squared- A few important angles such as 60, 120, 135, 225 degrees from former highs and lows since mid-2008 intersect near this date and when taking the distance from both 1/6/09 closing highs of 934.70, that being 77 cal days, or 270 degrees on the Sq of 9, subtracting 112, on the same angle down from 934.70 gets us to today's highs, as well as from our recent 3/9/09 closing lows of 676.53, on the 133.73 degree angle and at 15 days, or 90 degrees on the Sq of 9, also had 144.78 on its same angle, which when added to 676.53 gets us up to this 821 area... Hmmm- Uptrend from 3/6 still intact though and cant rule out a bit more strength before the real retracement starts- Cheers
last thought for the day carl
i brought up the count from the mid section the other day and im still digging through this yet now looking at 60 min chart on dow
points E J AND A apear to be pretty spot on which calls point A
the last major reaction low on march 20th .counting forward again
i can label todays high a point G
in which case were heading into point H , what i tend to think is going on at this point is we are forming a larger count from the mid section and while this form is not yet clear in the larger picture it begins to call into question just how deep this reaction down will become . i can see the reasons for a further decline yet based on what im looking at in terms of lindsays work which i am now very young in terms of dealing with , there is a case to be made that this decline will fail to break below the march 20th lows . maybe im dead wrong thats ok .
joe
Hey carl hope you get a bit of humor and or thoughts from this as i dig further .looking at lindsay's time spans of advances and declines i have some input .
weather you agree or not is fine
trying to put this all into perspective i have have come to a few conslusions . from dec 26 2007
to march 9th 2009 the dow fell in a long basic decline of 439 calander days .from may 2nd 2008
to march 9th 2009 the dow fell in a short basic decline of only 311 calander days which is to short
a further decline into march 29th would brings us to a more accurate
bear mkt decline in terms of time at 331 days . from august 11 2008
the dow fell again in a sub normal decline of what would become 230 calander days if we see a meaningful low on march 29th .
( im thinking higher lows )
what im getting at is pretty straght forward . based on lindsay's time spans the march 29th date is becoming more important and id rather see it as a low . the march 9th day though satisfied the longer term basic decline and march 9th was also a high to low to low count along with a top to top count . which now implies we are in the early stages of a basic advance . this may be why im seeing some accuracy with the mid section count even though i am looking at it on a short term chart . if all this is going to be true then i can see why you mentioned the possible 3 peaks domed house formation which may or may not begin or have begun . if it has then i think the point 3 would be placed somewhere between june 16th - 24th . a basic 8 month sideways move would put point 7 into feb 2010 . using the dow of january 2000 as a measure of bull market high and counting 12 years
2 months from that period we would begin to watch march 2010 as a potential begining point of an excelleration up which would probably correspond with point 10
this would then project a cyclical bull market top between oct and january 2011 .a short basic advance which if it began on march 9 2009 and lasted the average of 584 calander days would peak oct 14 2010 . this would fit with in the parameters of a 3 peaks domed house pattern . all speculative of course but something im going to consider
ok
im done
good luck
joe
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