New Uptrend?

Here is a 30 minute bar chart of e-mini trading over the past two weeks. I am wondering whether we have any evidence of a new short term uptrend yet.

You can see that the rally from yesterday's day session low still has not exceeded the length of the previous rally (blue rectangles). Even more important is the fact that volume on this afternoon's rally is low compared to the volume surges we have seen during the past 10 days (red dashed line). So we are definitely not yet seeing any demand shock.

From this I conclude that the most we can expect on the upside for this rally is the purple dotted line around the 740 level. This is the midpoint resistance for the small rally which developed a few days ago and is also the level of the November 21 low and of the low you see earlier on this chart.

I think the odds right now are 50-50 that the market will hold above 690 on any reaction. But I will become more bullish if I see a high volume surge which carries the market above 725.