Range Estimate

Here is the five minute bar chart of the e-mini's last two day sessions. I think today's day session will see a range of about 25 points. I expected today to be an up day and on such days the open is generally within 5 or 6 points of the day's low. So I went long at the first red arrow. But the market then dropped nearly 7 points from the open and below 700. Worse, the high for the day was just a tad above yesterday's high. This combination makes me think that we have seen the day's high and that a drop down to 685-90, the lower edge of the blue rectangle, is underway. Consequently I sold my position at the second red arrow.

At this juncture any strength above the 710 level would change the picture completely and make a move to 725 the next likely development.