Monday, May 18, 2009

Breakout Ahead

Here is a five minute bar chart of today's e-mini day session. It is unusual for the market to trade in a narrow range around the opening price for as long as it did this morning. The fact that it did so near the high end of its recent trading range made me think that its failure to reject these high prices meant that it had to go still higher before it could find more sellers.

So far this is what is happening. The e-minis raised their trading range (horizontal green lines), volume started to increase on the advance, and we saw two increasing range, higher volume bars to the upside (green arrows). I think this means that the market is preparing to break out above the high of the last two days (red dashed line). My range estimate for today (blue rectangle) reflects my expectation that an upside breakout from this trading range is imminent. If it happens, then I will conclude that the e-minis are on the way to 952.

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