Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Update at 3 pm

Here is a 30 minute bar chart of the e-mini day session. This afternoon's break surprised me, but it failed to develop significant volume (pair of horizontal green lines). Moreover, it carried the market down only as much as the last break did (purple rectangles). So I think the up move which began Tuesday is still viable and will carry the market up into the 950-80 over the next few weeks.

I sold my long position at 898 because I didn't expect the market to trade visibly below 900 today. When the market does something unusual in the context of my assessment of the trend direction I like to step aside. This gives me a chance to watch the market from a less biased perspective. If I find that I am still confident in my original views then I can reestablish my position. I usually have to do this at some price concession, but this is the price I pay to stay in business - it is the premium on my catastrophe insurance.

I think tomorrow's range will be 900 to 925 (blue rectangle). I think the 895-900 zone will prove to be support.

2 comments:

pimaCanyon said...

Very much appreciate your commentary on your trades, why you did what you did. It's quite helpful, and very generous of you to take the time for these explanations.

Paul Boughton said...

Support @888 SPX.